The Big 12 power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
The first rankings from the second season of the 12-team College Football Playoff will be revealed Tuesday afternoon, and the Big 12 could find itself immersed in the controversy that is sure to follow.
That would be a good thing, because the opposite is irrelevance.
What should the conference expect? Will its depth be rewarded? How will the top teams be treated? And what will the rankings reveal about the likelihood of sending an at-large team to the CFP?
Keep the selection process in mind: The five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids, with the top-seven non-champions filling the at-large pool.
Here are three issues to watch when the selection committee unveils the rankings Tuesday at 5 p.m. (Pacific) on ESPN:
— The fate of the top two.
True to its eat-your-own reputation, the Big 12 has just two teams, BYU (8-0) and Texas Tech (8-1), with fewer than two losses. (The ACC, Big Ten and SEC all have at least three teams with fewer than two.)
Both the Cougars and Red Raiders should crack the top-12 on Tuesday, suggesting they would make the CFP if the field were selected this week — if they don’t, sound the alarm — but that’s not the only issue to monitor.
How closely will they be positioned relative to each other? Also, will they be ranked behind any two-loss teams from the Big Ten or SEC?
The teams meet Saturday in Lubbock, and the loser could be marginalized for the duration if the Tuesday rankings are lower than expected.
— The Notre Dame factor.
Aside from the Big 12’s inherent parity, perhaps the greatest threat to its success within the at-large pool comes from South Bend.
Because of their status as an Independent, the Irish are not eligible for an automatic bid. As a result, their inclusion would reduce the number of at-large slots available from seven to six and potentially block a second team from the Big 12.
The Irish (6-2) likely will be ranked above any two-loss teams from the Big 12. But where will they be slotted relative to Texas Tech (8-1)?
— The two-loss teams.
In the first CFP reveal of the 2024 season, Kansas State was the Big 12’s highest ranked two-loss team, all the way down at No. 19. The positioning reflected a cynical view of the Big 12 that the committee never relinquished.
As of today, the Big 12 has four two-loss teams: Cincinnati, Houston, TCU and Utah. Where will they be ranked compared to two-loss teams in the ACC, Big Ten and SEC? And could they be ranked below any three-loss teams?
The specific placement of Big 12 teams will shift with the on-field results across the Power Four over the coming weeks. There are four Saturdays remaining, plus championship weekend.
But the rankings released Tuesday afternoon will tell us plenty about the committee’s general view of the conference, and that might not change as the weeks unfold.
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. BYU (8-0/5-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Texas Tech (9 a.m. on ABC)
Comment: The showdown with Texas Tech stands as the biggest game the Cougars have played since 1984, when they won the national championship. That’s no joke. BYU has waited four decades for a game like this. (Previous: 1)
2. Texas Tech (8-1/5-1)
Result: won at Kansas State 43-20
Next up: vs. BYU (9 a.m. on ABC)
Comment: The lead-up to Saturday’s duel could not have worked out better: quarterback Behren Morton was able to find his rhythm; the Red Raiders were pushed by Kansas State, but not to the brink; their confidence should be high but not dangerously so. (Previous: 3)
3. Utah (7-2/4-2)
Result: beat Cincinnati 45-14
Next up: idle
Comment: The Hotline opined last week that it was put-up-or-shut-up time for the Utes after the losses to Texas Tech and BYU. And, well, they certainly put up. (Previous: 4)
4. Arizona State (6-3/4-2)
Result: won at Iowa State 24-19
Next up: idle
Comment: Two things can be equally true: 1) That was a terrific win for the Sun Devils without Sam Leavitt; and 2) Iowa State has collapsed, so don’t read too much into the victory. (Previous: 6)
5. Cincinnati (7-2/5-1)
Result: lost at Utah 45-14
Next up: idle
Comment: Maybe it was a tad early to proclaim Scott Satterfield the frontrunner for Big 12 Coach of the Year and Brendan Sorsby the same for Offensive Player of the Year. In fact, let’s just forget the suggestions were ever made. (Previous: 2)
6. Houston (7-2/4-2)
Result: lost to West Virginia 45-35
Next up: at UCF (5 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Very shrewd of the Cougars to sustain one of the worst losses of the season in order to undercut coach Willie Fritz’s market value just as Big Ten and SEC jobs are becoming available. (Previous: 5)
7. TCU (6-2/3-2)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Iowa State (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: There’s a reason nobody is talking about the Horned Frogs as a title contender: They finish with Iowa State, BYU, Houston and Cincinnati and have no chance to secure the sweep they need to remain in the race. (Previous: 7)
8. Iowa State (5-4/2-4)
Result: lost to ASU 24-19
Next up: at TCU (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Very shrewd of the Cyclones to lose four in a row (following a hot start) in order to undercut coach Matt Campbell’s market value just as Big Ten and SEC jobs are becoming available. (Previous: 8)
9. Arizona (5-3/2-3)
Result: won at Colorado 52-17
Next up: vs. Kansas (12:30 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: The performance in Boulder was like a step back in time to November 2023, when Arizona blasted through the Pac-12. But can this team do what that team did and stack stellar efforts on top of each other. (Previous: 11)
10. Kansas State (4-5/3-3)
Result: lost to Texas Tech 43-20
Next up: idle
Comment: The Wildcats need two wins in their final three games to secure a bowl bid and play both Colorado and Oklahoma State. How fortunate. (Previous: 9)
11. Baylor (5-4/3-3)
Result: beat UCF 30-3
Next up: idle
Comment: If not for six scintillating minutes that catapulted the Bears past SMU, their resume would be completely devoid of anything substantive. (Previous: 10)
12. Kansas (5-4/3-3)
Result: beat Oklahoma State 38-21
Next up: at Arizona (12:30 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: The Jayhawks visit Arizona and Iowa State, then finish at home against Utah. The sixth win could prove quite elusive. (Previous: 12)
13. West Virginia (3-6/1-5)
Result: won at Houston 45-35
Next up: vs. Colorado (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: You know Rich Rodriguez had one more surprise in his playbook. Only the identity of the victim was in question. (Previous: 15)
14. UCF (4-4/1-4)
Result: lost at Baylor 30-3
Next up: vs. Houston (5 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: The resounding victory over North Carolina is aging well as the fightin’ Belichicks show signs of life. And that’s a good thing, because UCF has little else to pound its chest about. (Previous: 13)
15. Colorado (3-6/1-5)
Result: lost to Arizona 52-17
Next up: at West Virginia (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: The Buffaloes are expected to change quarterbacks (again) and start freshman Julian Lewis in Morgantown. That should help, but it’s hardly the only fix required. (Previous: 14)
16. Oklahoma State (1-8/0-6)
Result: lost at Kansas 38-21
Next up: idle
Comment: Each time a power conference school fires its coach — Auburn became the latest, dismissing Hugh Freeze on Sunday — the hiring market for the Cowboys becomes more challenging, and expensive. (Previous: 16)
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