The Big Ten stopped publishing a preseason media poll more than a decade ago following a vote of the head coaches. The intervening years have offered no incentive to restart the process. In fact, preseason polls appear to be headed the way of the dodo, with the Big 12 scrapping its version this summer to avoid giving the College Football Playoff selection committee any fuel for skepticism.
No matter, the Hotline is happy to fill the void.
Key point: We do not pick ties, but there will be ties. Many, many ties. With 18 teams and just nine conference games, deadlocks are inevitable.
Last season, there were three two-team ties, one three-team tie and one four-team tie. All in all, 72 percent of the teams were involved in ties.
There’s no reason to expect anything different this season. You just won’t find any ties in the projections below.
Here we go …
1. Penn State: Fresh off an appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinals — and led by an elite quarterback (Drew Allar) and stout offensive and defensive lines — the Nittany Lions will spend 2025 in the land of no excuses. Expectations are higher than they have been at any point in coach James Franklin’s long tenure. Anything short of returns to the conference championship game and CFP semifinals will be a major disappointment.
2. Ohio State: The defending national champions have the best offensive and defensive players in the country in receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs. But there are questions at quarterback with rookie Julian Sayin, and we’re a tad underwhelmed by the new coordinators, Brian Hartline (offense) and Matt Patricia (defense). Also, the schedule is rugged from the first game (Texas) to the last (Michigan).
3. Oregon: The margin-for-error in Eugene has diminished substantially due to an unproven quarterback, Dante Moore, and retooled offensive and defensive lines. (The knee injury suffered by big-play receiver Evan Stewart doesn’t help.) Pac-12 titles could be won with overwhelming talent at the skill positions. Big Ten trophies are decided in the trenches, and we aren’t convinced the Ducks have what it takes to repeat.
4. Illinois: The Illini have been billed as the 2025 version of Indiana, but the comparison isn’t completely accurate. Whereas the Hoosiers went from nothing to something in a breathtaking year, Illinois won 10 games last season. With a veteran quarterback, Luke Altmyer, returning starters everywhere and a favorable schedule (no Penn State, Oregon or Michigan), they are well positioned to duplicate that success.
5. USC: The Hotline’s forecast for Year 4 of the Lincoln Riley era is more favorable than others and, in all candor, we don’t have hard evidence to support the outlook. Instead, this is a deeply subjective contrarian approach. There are enough doubts about the defense and wobbly running game to fill the Coliseum, which makes us wonder if the Trojans just might unleash an upside surprise.
6. Nebraska: What playcaller Chip Kelly did for Ohio State last season, Dana Holgorsen could do for the Cornhuskers and sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola in 2025. (They were 103rd nationally in scoring last season.) If that’s the case, Nebraska might finally make the leap to relevance that eluded coach Matt Rhule in his first two seasons. If there’s no improvement, the seat heat in Lincoln will climb.
7. Michigan: Few quarterbacks anywhere will enter the 2025 season with as much pressure to perform as touted freshman Bryce Underwood, whose task is daunting: Return the Wolverines to national prominence despite a rebuilt defense, coaching staff with plenty to prove and a schedule that could be vastly more difficult than it appears. Fortunately, we’ll have clarity on Underwood’s impact sooner than later, thanks to the Week 2 trip to Oklahoma.
8. Iowa: With so much attention focused on the likes of Allar, Raiola, Sayin and Underwood, Iowa’s Mark Gronowski spent the offseason overlooked and undervalued. The South Dakota State transfer just might emerge as one of the best of the bunch. Assuming the Hawkeyes play their standard brand of defense, high-level efficiency from Gronowski could catapult Iowa onto the top tier.
9. Washington: It’s easy to envision the Huskies outperforming expectations in coach Jedd Fisch’s second season. They certainly have the quarterback (Demond Williams Jr.) and playmakers to rise above the Big Ten’s muddled middle, and most of their toughest games (Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon) are at home. But the season hinges on the lines of scrimmage, where UW lacked both the size and depth to keep pace with the conference’s best last season. The most likely outcome? The Huskies finish in a four-way tie for sixth or seventh place.
10. Michigan State: The schedule lines up well for a breakthrough with the Spartans missing Ohio State and Oregon and hosting both Michigan and Penn State. And coach Jonathan Smith’s track record suggests a year-over-year improvement is more likely than not. But we see a limited ceiling for the Spartans — both this season and in future years. Too many programs in the Big Ten are better built for consistent success.
11. Indiana: The Hoosiers’ laughable non-conference schedule will provide early momentum, but we expect that to fizzle once Big Ten play begins. Much depends on quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a transfer from Cal, adjusting to a higher level of play than he faced last season in the ACC. Also, nobody will overlook Indiana in Year 2 of the Curt Cignetti era. That dynamic alone could cost Indiana a few wins.
12. Wisconsin: If Luke Fickell doesn’t have the hottest seat in the conference, he’s on the (very) short list of contenders. Two substandard seasons will do that, especially after his heralded arrival from Cincinnati. Fickell hired offensive playcaller Jeff Grimes away from Kansas, but will Grimes mesh with new quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., who joins the program after a reasonably successful year at Maryland?
13. Minnesota: The Big Ten’s West division might be a thing of the past, but many of the teams appear on the Gophers’ schedule this season. That should give coach P.J. Fleck a chance to once again maximize his personnel — few coaches anywhere do it better — and quietly qualify for yet another bowl berth.
14. UCLA: There are numerous reasons to believe the Bruins will improve on their 2024 performance, with coach DeShaun Foster’s experience and the arrival of quarterback Nico Iamaleava (from Tennessee) atop the list. That said, a hefty dose of skepticism seems warranted when it comes to the offensive and defensive lines. UCLA’s trench talent will face one of its toughest tests in the opener, when Utah visits the Rose Bowl in what should be a telling game for both teams.
15. Rutgers: In a conference loaded with inexperienced quarterbacks, the Scarlet Knights’ Athan Kaliakmanis is an outlier with more than 800 passing attempts. That experience should serve Rutgers well. We suspect the Scarlet Knights will be competitive on a weekly basis and produce an upset or two. But the depth chart has too many holes for anything better than a finish in the bottom half of the standings.
16. Northwestern: Presumptive starting quarterback Preston Stone lost his job at SMU last season but nonetheless constitutes a major upgrade for the Wildcats, who won just two conference games last season. Stone won’t elevate the program on his own, but there are enough transfers to suggest a glimmer of hope for coach David Braun and Co. The schedule looks difficult but could turn unforgiving if a handful of opponents (e.g., Nebraska and USC) are better than expected.
17. Maryland: The hot seat situation mentioned with Nebraska’s Rhule and Wisconsin’s Fickell applies in College Park, as well. If the Terps don’t materially improve their trajectory following a 1-8 mark in conference play, Mike Locksley’s situation could turn fraught. The quarterback options are UCLA transfer Justyn Martin or heralded recruit Malik Washington. Either way, the climb is steep.
18. Purdue: We offered the following prediction a few months ago and continue to believe: Don’t be surprised if Barry Odom, not North Carolina’s Bill Belichick or West Virginia’s Rich Rodriguez, eventually proves the best hire of the 2024-25 offseason cycle. Odom has more than 50 transfers arriving and could make major strides quickly. If so, this placement will be wildly erroneous. But hey, we’ve been there and done that.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline