The Blackhawks begin a seven-game home stand Saturday that could determine the trajectory of their season.
At 1-4-0, it hasn’t started with much success, but their play has improved substantially in the last two games. Time will tell if that’s a blip or the beginning of a broader trend.
If it’s the latter, this 2026-27 Hawks season could follow a trajectory similar to the 2025-26 Sharks’ season. If it’s the former, this Hawks season could instead play out more like the 2021-22 Hawks.
It could also easily end up in the middle, but considering October is prime overreaction time around the NHL, it’s worth examining the two extreme possibilities.
2025-26 Sharks’ trajectory
Last season marked the fourth consecutive season that the Sharks began with a losing streak of five games or longer — a remarkable stat. When they were 0-4-2 after six games last October, nobody batted an eye.
They had conceded 29 goals over the six games, and their analytics were no better. They had a 37.0% expected-goals ratio and 40.4% scoring-chance ratio during five-on-five play.
Then a wild 6-5 overtime win over the Rangers in the Sharks’ seventh game jumpstarted an 8-2-1 hot streak that did raise eyebrows around the league — and, looking back, marked the moment the Sharks’ rebuild turned a corner.
They ultimately flirted with the playoffs deep into March, wooed fans with an exciting playing style, established Macklin Celebrini as a superstar and finished 39-35-8, equating to a whopping 34-point improvement from 2024-25.
The Hawks and Sharks have been compared ad nauseam in recent years, and even though the Sharks’ surge last season pushed them ahead in that debate, the Hawks could theoretically catch up this season. They have the youth, talent and potential to do so if things start clicking.
And what would be a more logical time for things to start clicking than a long home stand after settling into the season?
The Hawks’ lineup has found some chemistry, former top-three picks Artyom Levshunov and Anton Frondell seem to be developing steadily and it’s possible Connor Bedard could return by the end of the month.
Four of the opponents coming to Chicago — the Hurricanes, Stars, Canadiens and Panthers — are tough, but the the Sharks beat the Wild twice and Avalanche once during their hot streak last fall. That’s simply what it takes to ascend the hierarchy.
2021-22 Hawks’ trajectory
Most Hawks fans will be familiar with this comparison, and it won’t bring back pleasant memories.
The Hawks entered 2021-22 with a radically reshuffled lineup (headlined by Seth Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury) and immediately embarrassed themselves.
They lost their first consecutive nine games, and they were 1-9-2 on Nov. 6 when then-interim general manager Kyle Davidson fired then-coach Jeremy Colliton.
Granted, dark clouds hung over this 2021-22 Hawks team that aren’t relevant to the 2026-27 Hawks. Ex-GM Stan Bowman had resigned on Oct. 26 during the fallout from the sexual-assault scandal, and Colliton had run an exhausting training camp that predictably backfired.
But the team’s analytics when Colliton got axed — 41.0% expected-goals ratio and 43.3% scoring-chance ratio — were actually slightly better than the current Hawks’ ratios: 37.8% and 40.8%, respectively.
Interim coach Derek King took over and mildly improved the vibes for the rest of a hopeless, purposeless season, which the Hawks finished 28-42-12.
For now, Davidson and current Hawks coach Jeff Blashill possess much stronger job security than Bowman and Colliton did. With portions of the fan base already expressing frustration, however, that could change if 2026-27 plays out even half as disastrously as 2021-22 did.
The coming weeks should make it clearer in which direction this season will go, for better or worse.