Sean Payton has a three-step plan he regularly points to regarding how he wants his team to think about the postseason.
1. Win the division
2. Aim for the best seed possible
3. Super Bowl
There’s an easy way to measure just how confident he and the Broncos are as they come off their bye week and try to run their winning streak to nine games Sunday night at Washington.
He’s talking primarily about Step 2 already.
Denver, of course, is in terrific shape to win the AFC West. At 9-2, they lead the Los Angeles Chargers by two games, and they’re four games clear of Kansas City in the loss column after the Chiefs lost on Thanksgiving to Dallas.
Denver, too, will be heavily favored in each of its next two games against the Commanders and Las Vegas, even though each is on the road.
The schedule stiffens over the final four with Green Bay and Jacksonville at home, a Christmas night game at Kansas City and then Week 18 at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. If the Broncos take care of business over the next month, they can render those final two games academic.
Any slip, though, and the division could still hang in the balance between Christmas and the first week of January.
Payton, however, isn’t talking much about the West at this point. At least not publicly. He did spend considerable time this week telling his team what it takes from here to capture the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the benefits that come with it.
Twice this week he was asked about messaging to his team coming off the bye and twice he talked about seeding rather than the West.
“You’re in a position where they can kind of see that if you are able to capture the No. 1 seed, you eliminate a game and that’s significant,” Payton said Wednesday. “Those early years in New Orleans, we were the No. 2 seed and ended up at Chicago as the No. 1 seed in tough weather. I remember after that tough loss feeling like, ‘We have to find a way to play this game at home.’ ”
That was 2006, Payton’s first year. Three years later, the Saints captured the No. 1 seed, beat Arizona and Minnesota at home and then won the Super Bowl against Indianapolis.
“And look, that doesn’t mean you have to,” Payton said of the top seed. “We’ve seen years and years of teams — shoot, Tampa Bay most recently on the road, on the road and on the road and won the Super Bowl.
“Each week, we build up this equity of where we are at, and I think certainly the buy-in and these guys are smart enough to know what each of these games counts for.”
That last part is key to Payton’s thinking. You can’t get the No. 1 seed without winning the division and his group is mature enough, he’s decided, to try to put away the West while also holding bigger goals close.
“You have to give (players) goals and these are not lofty goals at this point, right?” defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said this week. “We’ve won eight straight and we expect to win every game we play. I think you have to talk about those things because that’s the goal and that’s the standard.
“It keeps guys pushing and working. It keeps coaches pushing and working. We’re never satisfied with even the wins.”
The division is straightforward at this point. Going into Sunday’s games, the New York Times’ playoff model gives Denver a 78% chance of prevailing. Beat the Chargers in Week 18 and that jumps to 94%, regardless of what happens in the other five remaining games.
The No. 1 seed is still a tougher task. New England currently has the best odds at 56%, Denver is second at 26%, and Indianapolis fell to third at 11% after a loss last week.
The Patriots play the New York Giants this weekend before their bye, then have a tough back-to-back against Buffalo and at Baltimore. After that, though, they finish with the New York Jets and Dolphins. So that’s a pair of preseason Super Bowl contenders left, but also a trio that enters the weekend a combined 8-26.
Four of Indy’s final six are against division rivals Houston and Jacksonville and they’ve also got tough ones at Seattle and against San Francisco.
Overall opponent record remaining looks like this:
Indianapolis: 42-25
Denver: 33-34-1
New England: 21-36
There’s a long way to go to sort out potential tiebreakers, but the Colts beat Denver in Week 2, so that’s a simple one. After head-to-head comes conference record. Entering this weekend, Denver and New England are each 6-2 against AFC foes. The Broncos play two of their next three against NFC teams before closing with K.C. and the Chargers. The Patriots have an NFC foe Monday night in the Giants, then close with four AFC games. If the teams end up with the same conference record, the tiebreaker moves to common opponents.
Regardless, Denver’s next two opponents are 5-17 combined this year.
For the division, but particularly toward Payton’s focus on the No. 1 seed, these are critical games to avoid stubbing the toe.
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