Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
Not a question, but an opinion. I think the Broncos should trade back for more picks — possibly a second-rounder — and then pick quarterback Mike Pratt from Tulane or if he’s still available, Bo Nix.
— Peter Beckley, Aurora
Hey Peter, thanks for writing in and getting us going this week. There’s definitely more conversation around the possibility of trading back from No. 12 for the Broncos. Not that they couldn’t move up or take a quarterback at their original pick, but the closer we get to the draft, the more folks have come around on some combination of these general thoughts: The Broncos have a lot of needs. They have needs at premium positions besides quarterback. The value at quarterback just might not be there if four go in the top five picks. The Broncos may or may not be willing to mortgage another haul of future draft capital after giving up three first-rounders and three second-rounders in the past two-plus years for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton.
When people casually just say, oh, Payton will definitely give up multiple future first-round picks to move up to No. 3 or No. 4, it’s good to keep in mind that even by trading that mega-haul, you’re getting the third or fourth quarterback in the class. That kind of move only comes together if the guy you feel strongest about is still on the board. It’d be a terrible idea to make that move for a consolation prize.
This quote from owner and CEO Greg Penner to a question I asked this spring at the ownership meetings in Orlando keeps coming to mind, too: “Our approach is going to be, long-term, to build the roster through the draft, and then be opportunistic with free agency and trades and strike when we are in a good place to do that.”
It’s going to be hard to build through the draft if your next first-round pick is in 2027. So yeah, trading back is definitely in the cards. But a lot of things are still in the cards here just more than a week before the first round arrives.
Bo Nix’s draft stock seems like it’s falling a bit. Any chance we could trade down, land him and pick up more draft capital?
— Paul Smith, Fort Collins
Hey Paul, thanks for the note. I’m not sure it’s that Nix’s stock is falling. It’s just that he’s never really been considered by most analysts to be in the same category as the very top options in the draft. And as we get closer, there’s more and more scrutiny on whether a team is really, actually going to take him in the middle of the first round.
Maybe somebody will. It could even be Denver. There’s a reason and a logic to that, and it’s not just about fit. Good quarterbacks are the most expensive commodity in football. As we saw in free agency this spring, the market for No. 2-level quarterbacks is on the rise, too. Nix might not be an upper-echelon starter right away, and he might never be. But he’d have to completely wash out to not be at least worth what the No. 12 pick is getting paid over four years, to say nothing of getting picked later in the first round or into the second day of the draft.
Teams have become more and more aggressive picking quarterbacks because you’re just paying them nothing compared to the market. They’re only expensive if you trade draft capital to land one. Of course, there’s also the opportunity cost of not picking somebody else.
But that’s part of why you consistently see quarterbacks get drafted far earlier than where they’re ranked overall on a big board. And why every team should make a habit of regularly drafting quarterbacks, even if it’s only as a stash-and-develop project.
Last year, I remember there was a bit of buzz when we landed Drew Sanders and Riley Moss in the third round. Do you think either (or both) could make a big leap this year?
— Mark, Arvada
Great question, Mark. One of the keys to the Broncos’ 2024 season, really, is how last year’s draft class develops this fall. If you had a normal, full draft class, you wouldn’t necessarily expect that your third-rounders are always going to be impact guys right away. You’d be pretty happy if they were special teams guys and spot players in Year 1 and then developed in Year 2. Part of what’s happened with the Broncos the past couple of years is that they have players who arrive with the expectation of being the team’s top pick or picks from that year’s draft, but really they weren’t taken in the usual instant-impact range of the draft.
It happened two years ago with Nik Bonitto, who struggled as a rookie and took a nice step forward in his second season. If Sanders, Moss and wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. take that same step forward this fall, you’ll feel pretty good about that draft class overall. But they need those guys, too. They traded up for Mims and and up again for Moss.
The pick Denver traded to move up for Moss is the No. 81 pick in this year’s draft. On the Jimmy Johnson chart, it and the No. 76 pick overall would get the Broncos up to around No. 50 overall if they wanted to get into the second round.
So yes, bottom line, there’s pressure on everybody in the NFL but it will be very interesting to see if Denver’s 2023 rookie class — particularly those top three guys — can take a big step forward individually and collectively in Year 2.
Hey Parker, do you think we get a Thanksgiving game this year? Also any word if the Broncos are going to be on “Hard Knocks”? Thanks.
— Frank M., Denver
Hey Frank, good questions. We’ll have the NFL schedule in hand sometime in early-ish May, so the wait’s not too much longer. Never say never on the Thanksgiving Day game, but the odds aren’t in Denver’s favor for one particular reason: Dallas and Detroit host two of the three games played that day every year and neither is on Denver’s schedule for 2024. The Broncos could end up in the third game that day — Thanksgiving night in prime time — but that’s their only chance, and this isn’t a year you’d expect the team to be in prime time all that often.
Related Articles
WR Courtland Sutton not with Broncos at start of voluntary offseason program, source says
Broncos draft preview: Denver’s pass rush could use more juice, potentially in first round
Broncos add veteran DT Angelo Blackson on one-year deal
Broncos draft preview: Denver needs more help on the defensive line. How early will Sean Payton and company draft it?
Broncos analysis: What are Denver’s options if Sean Payton, George Paton don’t land quarterback near top of 2024 draft?
As for “Hard Knocks,” I’d imagine the folks at HBO will have a hard time saying no to likely No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and Chicago for the preseason rendition, but Payton and the Broncos certainly would come with entertainment value, too.
The in-season version is going to be interesting, because for the first time the show is going to follow an entire division instead of one team. Find me a better watch than Payton, Andy Reid, Jim Harbaugh and Antonio Pierce, plus the quarterback star power in Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, plus perhaps a couple of rookie quarterbacks.
Let’s play a little revisionist history here. If we had gone after Aaron Rodgers in 2022 and landed him instead of Russell Wilson, do you think we’d be in a much different position now? Would Nathaniel Hackett still be here? What do you think?
— T. James, San Diego
Well, T, first things first: It’s pretty common knowledge that Denver did have interest in Rodgers in 2022. The fact that he didn’t end up here isn’t because of a lack of trying. It just didn’t materialize, and he ended up back in Green Bay for one more year.
It would take Rodgers-strength plant medicine to open your mind far enough to see the full butterfly effect on the past two years had he ended up in orange and blue rather than Russell Wilson. Suffice it to say my day-to-day would have been a lot different. Maybe The Post would have sent me on a darkness retreat to see what all the fuss is about.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.