Caleb Williams: Right guy, right place, right time

Amid unprecedented anticipation, the Bears selected USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft on Thursday night — a watershed moment that heralded the dawn of a new era in Bears history.

Again.

Any Bears fan out of grade school can’t be blamed for tempering the excitement with at least a bit of skepticism. The Bears have been here before. Too many times, actually. The trade for Jay Cutler in 2009. Drafting Mitch Trubisky second overall in 2017. Drafting Justin Fields 11th overall in 2021.

And each new era ended in disappointment, with little to show for it — one playoff appearance in Cutler’s eight seasons; two playoff appearances in Trubisky’s four seasons, but one regrettable and the other forgettable; and no playoff appearances and a 16-35 record in Fields’ three seasons.

It wasn’t all their fault, of course. But that’s the point. Even if you get the right guy, he has to be in the right place and at the right time.

And therein lies the difference with Caleb Williams. No Bears quarterback since Jim McMahon has been set up to succeed like Williams has — before he’s even stepped foot in Halas Hall.

We know how much can go wrong. McMahon won a Super Bowl and went 46-15 as a starter — including an incredible 42-6 in his final 48 starts (plus two spectacular wins in relief). But even his glorious run is tinged with regret because of injuries that prevented the Ditka Bears from fulfilling their potential for a modern-era sports dynasty.

Be that as it may, Caleb Williams enters Halas Hall with the best chance to lead the Bears to a run of success they haven’t had since the Ditka era. (The Bears have not had three consecutive playoff seasons since 1984-88 under Ditka.)

And it all starts with Williams, who is pound-for-pound the best quarterback prospect the Bears have had since Sid Luckman. He was the consensus pick as the top overall prospect in this draft, considered by many as the best overall prospect since Stanford’s Andrew Luck in 2012.

Fields, by comparison, was the 11th best prospect in ESPN’s top 100 in 2021. And Trubisky was 42nd in 2017. Cutler, the 11th overall pick in 2006 by the Broncos, was coming off a career season when he joined the Bears in 2009 — throwing for 4,526 yards and making the Pro Bowl. But his 86.0 passer rating ranked 17th in the NFL.

Cutler’s eight-year career with the Bears’ typified the franchise’s tough luck in establishing a franchise quarterback. When he had a strong defense supporting him he didn’t have the weapons. When the Bears gave him the weapons — Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett — the defense collapsed. There was always something.

Williams comes to a team that despite going 10-24 in two seasons under general manager Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus, is a quarterback away from being ready for take-off.

The Bears not only have weapons in place on offense in wide receivers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, tight end Cole Kmet and running back D’Andre Swift, but a defense that is on the rise with playmakers at all three levels in defensive end Montez Sweat, linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards and cornerback Jaylon Johnson.

Williams figures to notice the difference. In his eight losses at USC, the Trojans’ defense allowed an average of 40.1 points — 31 or more in each game. The Bears’ defense has expectations of finishing in the top 10 in its third season under Eberflus. The Bears finished 20th in scoring defense last season, but were tied for sixth in the final 13 games of the season.

Bears fans know all too well that things can and do change. The Bears’ defense was at a peak early for Cutler and Trubisky, but quickly petered out. But this Bears defense is just getting started. Sweat is 28 and signed through 2027. Edmunds is 26 and signed through 2026. Edwards is 27 and signed through 2025. Johnson is 25 and signed through 2027.

And there’s room for additional growth from four recent second-round picks who have been promising — cornerbacks Kyler Gordon (2022) and Tyrique Stevenson (2023), safety Jaquan Brisker (2022) and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter (2023). In Years 3-4 with the Colts in 2020 and 2021, Eberflus’ defense finished 10th and ninth in points allowed. This defense is on that arc.

And the Bears not only are better equipped on both sides of the ball to support a talented quarterback, but haven’t mortgaged their future to get there. Acquiring Cutler in 2009 cost them first-round picks in 2009 and 2010. After drafting Trubisky in 2017, they didn’t have first-round picks in 2019 and 2020 because of the Khalil Mack trade. And to get Fields in 2021, they gave up their first-round pick in 2022.

The Bears entered the 2024 draft with all their future first-round picks, plus an additional second-round pick in 2025 from the Panthers. And even after signing Sweat, Kmet and Johnson to extensions, they are not in cap hell — still with the 11th-most cap space per spotrac.com.

The Bears with Williams have a solid support system and room for growth. It seems strange to say this about a franchise still searching for the next Sid Luckman, but relative to previous quarterback hopefuls, Caleb Williams is at the right place at the right time. All the remains to be seen is if he indeed is the right guy.