The expanded College Football Playoff is here to stay — Lord knows there’s no going back — and one supposes the enthusiasm surrounding it is undeniable. For now, there are 12 teams in the field. Inevitably, there will be more. Further and further from the college game’s traditional emphasis on the regular season we’ll go.
But how good will the competition be? That’s what I’m waiting to see.
For 10 years under the four-team model, it was a rare occurrence to have four teams (or even three) in the field that seemed capable of winning the championship. More often than not, the semifinal games were total duds. Just look back at the scores — 13 of 20 playoff semis have been decided by 17 or more points. Riveting? Uh, no.
So how will it be with 12 teams? Will the Clemsons and SMUs of the world make an NFL-style college postseason worth our viewing while?
Let’s take a peek at Saturday’s three first-round, on-campus games.
No. 11 SMU (11-2) at No. 6 Penn State (11-2)
Time, TV: 11 a.m., TNT.
Line: Penn State by 8½.
Ohio State has been to the playoff six times. Michigan, half that many. Penn State? Never, until now. Under the four-team model, no one perfected the close-but-no-cigar routine quite like PSU.
But now they have their shot. They have wintry conditions and a white-out in the Beaver Stadium stands to help them against SMU. They get Boise State next in the Fiesta Bowl if they take care of the Mustangs. That beautiful sound in the distance is the semifinals serenading the Nittany Lions. This, folks, is the dream scenario.
The star players — Abdul Carter, Tyler Warren, Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton — are on PSU’s side. SMU, an impressive team built to a great extent via the transfer portal, hopes its quarterback, Kevin Jennings, will seize the moment and its pass rush, which has piled up 40 sacks, will be a decisive factor.
In the preseason, SMU coach Rhett Lashlee spoke of “accomplishing greatness” and surmised that reaching the ACC title game in their first season in the ACC would — win or lose — put the Mustangs into the playoff. He turned out to be right on that one, though it came down to a close call on selection day, so congrats to him. But the pick here is PSU, 31-20.
No. 12 Clemson (10-3) at No. 5 Texas (11-2)
Time, TV: 3 p.m., TNT.
Line: Texas by 12½.
It wasn’t long ago that Clemson’s Dabo Swinney was considered to be right up there with Nick Saban and Urban Meyer as one of the elite coaches of his time. Swinney is the only one of that trio with a team anymore, but his star has faded some. He has been slow to embrace the portal. The need to amass an NIL stockpile for players rubbed him the wrong way, too. The Tigers have paid for it competitively, even this season.
“I’ve been taking shots for 16 years,” Swinney said, “and we just keep winning.”
But even after edging SMU for the ACC crown and an automatic playoff berth, the Tigers were ranked only 16th by the committee. Texas, ranked No. 3, is an extra-large step up in competition. Will the Tigers be able to breathe against the Longhorns’ sensational defense, which is third-best overall in the country, has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (143.1) and has nearly five times more interceptions (19) than touchdown passes surrendered (four)?
Four seasons ago, the high school team quarterbacked by Cade Klubnik beat the one led by Quinn Ewers for the Texas Class 6A championship. The passers meet again, with Klubnik at Clemson now and Ewers running the show at Texas when he isn’t filming Dr. Pepper commercials. Time for some payback, I reckon — Horns Up, 27-16.
No. 9 Tennessee (10-2) at No. 8 Ohio State (10-2)
Time, TV: 7 p.m., Ch. 7, ESPN.
Line: Ohio State by 7.
Ohio State and its fans have clamored for a huge night game at home. They’ve got it now. The environment at the Horseshoe will be off-the-charts tense — and that’s when Buckeyes coach Ryan Day isn’t being booed for having an imperfect team and, oh, by the way, losing to Michigan four years in a row.
As if trying not to get fired isn’t pressure enough, Day has to hope his offensive line — hit hard by injuries — can cope against Tennessee’s A-plus defensive front, which is better than the Michigan group that owned the line of scrimmage in Columbus on the last Saturday of November.
“They know how they need to play in this game,” Day said. “Not that everything has to be perfect, but we’ve got to rock off the ball and knock people back.”
The Vols rank No. 4 in points (13.9) and yards (278.3) allowed per game, but the Buckeyes’ defense has been even better, ranking No. 1 on both counts (10.9, 241.1). Is Vols QB Nico Iamaleava, a 6-6 redshirt freshman from sunny Southern California, going to stand tall or fold with temperatures in the 20s and 90,000-plus screaming for his demise?
I worry about the Buckeyes, who I felt for months would end up as national champs when all was said and done. That sense has left me, but this could be a miserable night to play offense in orange and white. Go Bucks, 23-13.