The carousel is spinning at dizzying speed, with two dozen major college football programs (out of 136) changing coaches this season. More dismissals, departures and retirements are expected in coming weeks, pushing the industry to an unprecedented level of turnover.
By the time the transfer portal opens in early January, more than 40 programs could have new leadership.
Here’s a look at notable hirings, firings and developments thus far.
Loser: ESPN. The most influential show on the most influential network in college football was spectacularly disingenuous with its coverage of the Lane Kiffin sweepstakes. As “College GameDay” analyst Nick Saban implored Mississippi to allow Kiffin to remain with the Rebels through the playoff — and Kirk Herbstreit did the same — he was privately advising Kiffin to take the LSU job. What do Kiffin, Saban and Herbstreit have in common? They are all represented by the same agency, CAA. On the conflict-of-interest scale, the situation was an 11. And frankly, we expect nothing less from a network whose first letter (E) stands for entertainment.
Winner: Jimmy Sexton. The most powerful agent in the sport once again controls the market. Actually, check that: Sexton has controlled the market and the narrative with his clients spewing nonsense about Kiffin on ESPN. The Rebels could not possibly have allowed Kiffin to accept a job with their rival and continue to represent the school … and poach its players.
Loser: The SEC. Three teams have hired coaches from The American (Auburn, Arkansas and Florida), one promoted from within (Mississippi) and one hired a coordinator (Kentucky) — all five carry significant risk — but only LSU hired a sitting head coach from the power conferences. Put another way: The SEC poached the Group of Five, not the ACC and Big 12.
Winner: Virginia Tech. The Hokies dismissed Brent Pry in the middle of September, giving themselves the flexibility to move on a replacement early if the desired option became available. Once Penn State fired James Franklin, they pounced — and landed the man who could lead them to the top of the wide-open ACC.
Loser: The rest of the ACC. Franklin’s reputation took a massive hit when Penn State imploded following the Oregon loss. But he won 10 games consistently in Happy Valley and is well-equipped to change the competitive dynamic within his new conference. The middle-tier football programs in the ACC — that’s all of them, except Clemson, Florida State and Miami — now have a massive obstacle in their path to relevance.
Winner: UCLA. The Bruins checked off the most important box in their search, finding an experienced head coach, Bob Chesney, who has won at multiple levels and is 20-5 in two seasons at James Madison.
Loser: UCLA. Chesney doesn’t check any other critical box for the Bruins. His expertise isn’t on offense; he has no ties to the West Coast; and he has never coached in the power conferences. On that last issue, he is most definitely not the second coming of Curt Cignetti, who worked for Saban at Alabama.
Winner: Colorado State. Plenty of schools talked to Jim Mora, but only one hired the former Falcons, Seahawks and UCLA coach who has done first-rate work at UConn. His appointment should energize Rams fans and elevate CSU to contender status, sooner than later, in the new Pac-12.
Loser: Jonathan Smith. The demise and dismissal at Michigan State was easy to predict the moment Smith left Oregon State in November 2023. Simply, he was a terrible fit for a difficult job. (The Spartans lack the machinery to win regularly in the Big Ten.) Had he remained in Corvallis that winter, Smith would have been available for Washington, UCLA and Arizona, to name three.
Winner: Oregon State. See above: Smith, Jonathan.
Loser: Oregon State. The Hotline isn’t convinced JaMarcus Shephard will elevate the Beavers, although that opinion requires the following context: We aren’t sure anyone could raise OSU to the top tier of the rebuilt Pac-12 with the current state of affairs in Corvallis and questionable NIL support.
Winner: BYU. Common sense prevailed as Kalani Sitake agreed to an extension with the Cougars and rejected overtures from Penn State. Sitake fits better in Provo than he would be anywhere else — a tenure in Happy Valley could have gone very wrong very quickly — and we don’t believe it’s close. His decision is a major win for first-year athletic director Brian Santiago, as well.
Loser: Penn State. You would never know the Nittany Lions are a blue-blood program, given their struggle to land a high-level coach in the five weeks since dismissing Franklin. The longer their search lasts, the more difficult it becomes to sell the new coach to frustrated constituents. Why the Nittany Lions didn’t start the process by making Iowa State’s Matt Campbell an offer he couldn’t refuse — Campbell grew up 200 miles from State College — we will never know.
Winners: Cal and Stanford. The ancient rivals have much in common these days, with a president and chancellor who care about football, strong general managers and, it appears, popular former players in charge of the programs. Stanford hired former quarterback Tavita Pritchard while Cal is expected to appoint ex-defensive lineman Tosh Lupoi. Mammoth challenges await both, but the most important ingredient — institutional alignment — exists on both campuses.
Loser: Florida. A school that has won three national titles in the past 30 years was relegated to second-class status by conference rival LSU in the Kiffin sweepstakes and forced to hire Jon Sumrall from Tulane. This one will hurt in Gainesville for a long, long time.
Winner: Kiffin. For more than a week, the sport was fixated on his every move and utterance, just as he hoped. If you expected his departure from Mississippi to be anything other than a colossal mess, you haven’t paid attention to his entire career.
Loser: The American. In one sense, the conference won the carousel by placing three coaches in the SEC (Sumrall, South Florida’s Alex Golesh and Memphis’ Ryan Silverfield) and one in the Big 12 (North Texas’ Eric Morris). But the attrition means four of the top programs must make shrewd hires, support the new staffs and start their climbs to the top all over.
Winner: The (new) Pac-12. Anything that hurts the American helps the Pac-12 given how the two conferences will compete for supremacy within the Group of Six. (The highest-ranked G-6 champion will receive an automatic bid to the playoff.) And as of today, the hottest coaches in the new Pac-12 — we’re talking San Diego State’s Sean Lewis and Boise State’s Spencer Danielson — have not been poached.
Loser: Oregon. Dan Lanning’s coaching tree continues to blossom with the Ducks likely losing both coordinators to head coaching positions: Offensive playcaller Will Stein is off to Kentucky while Lupoi, the defensive boss, is expected to agree to terms with Cal. Both are likely to remain in Eugene through the playoff but must juggle two jobs. And their departures could impact Oregon’s cohesion next season.
Winner: Washington. Anything that adversely affects Oregon naturally helps Washington, which has much ground to gain on its rival. And it appears the Huskies will retain second-year coach Jedd Fisch, offering them needed continuity.
Loser: Coordinators. This dervish of a carousel has left one cluster behind: well-regarded offensive and defensive coordinators in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. Only a handful have been hired as head coaches thus far. Instead, schools with vacancies are seeking corner-office experience to navigate the roiling landscape. If that strategy proves misguided, the industry could be back in the same place in two or three years.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline