Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 6-5. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
The old Mountain West and the new Mountain West are performing at a level unmatched by any conference this season — not on the field but in the sportsbooks.
Only 16 teams in major college football have covered the spread in at least 75 percent of their games.
Five trace their roots to the Mountain West.
Four are current members: San Diego State (7-2 vs. spread), Hawaii (7-2), Utah State (7-2) and Boise State (6-2-1).
The fifth is a former member: Utah (7-2).
Success against the spread typically moves in lockstep with upside surprises, with the handful of teams each season that outperform expectations. And that’s certainly the case with San Diego State, Hawaii and Utah State.
(The Aztecs and Rainbow Warriors are already bowl-eligible this season, while the Aggies are one victory away. All three had losing records last year.)
But there could be an additional element involved in spread success (or failure): the transfer portal.
Roster changes are difficult enough for the oddsmakers to track at the highest level of the sport, in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC.
On the tier inhabited by the Mountain West, American and Sun Belt, many of the newcomers were either reserves in the Power Four or moved up from the FCS — all of which makes personnel changes exponentially more difficult to monitor and assess.
It’s something to watch next season, when the rebuilt Pac-12 comes online. There very well could be a substantial disconnect between the oddsmakers’ perception of specific teams and the on-field reality.
To the picks …
Season record: 54-61-1 (47%)
Five-star special: 5-6
(All times Pacific)
Minnesota (+25.5) at Oregon
Kickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Ducks are fresh off a huge win at Iowa but face a short turnaround in their playoff push, while Minnesota is a different form of fresh: The Gophers haven’t played since Nov. 1. They don’t have the firepower to keep pace with Oregon for the full 60 minutes but should hang around long enough to cover the sizable spread. Pick: Minnesota
Arizona (+6) at Cincinnati
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on FS1
Comment: After securing a bowl berth with the biggest win of coach Brent Brennan’s tenure, the Wildcats must navigate one of the toughest challenges in the sport: a long flight and early kickoff against an opponent that has two weeks to prepare. Either Cincinnati pounces early and dominates, or the Wildcats deliver a significant upset given the circumstances. We don’t see any middle ground. Pick: Arizona
Notre Dame (-12.5) at Pittsburgh
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ABC
Comment: No game this weekend has greater playoff implications from coast to coast. (If the Irish win, they are effectively a lock for the CFP and would gobble one of the seven precious at-large berths.) The Panthers have been unbeatable since changing quarterbacks to freshman Mason Heintschel, but are overmatched. This feels like too many points, which might be precisely the point: Oddsmakers want action on the Panthers. Pick: Notre Dame
Oregon State (-2.5) at Tulsa
Kickoff: 10 a.m. on ESPN+
Comment: With just two wins all season and a recent loss to Sam Houston, the reeling Beavers would not be favored over many FBS teams. But Tulsa has tanked since the early upset of Oklahoma State (five consecutive losses). The Hotline doesn’t agree with the spread. Oregon State has fully mastered the art of finding ways to lose. Pick: Tulsa
West Virginia (+11.5) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 10 a.m. on TNT
Comment: ASU is without quarterback Sam Leavitt and star receiver Jordyn Tyson and faces a second-tier but improving opponent that recently won at Houston. Mountaineers coach Rich Rodriguez can scheme with anyone and should find a way to keep this from turning lopsided. Pick: West Virginia
Oklahoma (+6) at Alabama
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: One of the most impactful Week 12 games is a revenge opportunity for the Crimson Tide, whose loss in Norman last season kept them out of the playoff. Quarterback Ty Simpson and Co. are playing too well to be stopped, even by a defense of Oklahoma’s caliber. Pick: Alabama
Iowa (+6.5) at USC
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: The Trojans are very good at home (just ask Michigan) and should run the ball effectively on a Hawkeye defense that could not stop Oregon’s ground game last weekend. Unless USC participates heavily in its own demise — or coach Lincoln Riley calls 40 pass plays in the expected downpour — the playoff charge should continue. Pick: USC
Utah (-8.5) at Baylor
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: Both teams had two weeks to prepare but only one, Utah, is building momentum as the season progresses — as results against a common recent opponent suggest: The Utes battered Cincinnati in late October immediately after Cincinnati battered Baylor. Add the playoff stakes to Utah’s motivational tool kit, and this should not be close down the stretch. Pick: Utah
Purdue (+16.5) at Washington
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1
Comment: The Huskies are in recovery mode after the atrocious loss at Wisconsin and face just the right opponent to get back on track. Purdue isn’t as good as Illinois or Rutgers, which lost in Husky Stadium by a combined 36 points. If this is close when the fourth quarter begins, something will have gone very wrong for UW. Pick: Washington
Texas (+6) at Georgia
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: A massive game for the CFP race given that Texas has two losses, although the Hotline is not convinced No. 3 would necessarily eliminate the Longhorns. (Imagine the outrage if 9-3 Texas makes the CFP but a 10-2 Big 12 team does not.) Will we see good Arch Manning or bad Arch Manning? If the former, this could be the game of the year. Pick: Texas
UCLA (+31.5) at Ohio State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: The slumping Bruins face the most talented defense in the country, a unit allowing just 7.2 points per game (nobody is close). But we wonder about Ohio State’s urgency against a third-rate opponent — and with the Michigan game looming in two weeks. Feels like a comfortable victory for the Buckeyes, just not by 32 points. Pick: UCLA
Louisiana Tech (+7.5) at Washington State
Kickoff: 7 p.m. on The CW
Comment: This is tantamount to a must-win game for the Cougars, who are two short of a bowl berth. They have three games left, but one (at James Madison) presents a next-level challenge. If WSU simply takes care of the Bulldogs on Saturday night and Oregon State in the finale, it will be bowling once again. Pick: Washington State
TCU (+4.5) at BYU
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: This line is undoubtedly influenced by BYU’s blowout loss last week at Texas Tech, because the Cougars should be favored by a touchdown over an opponent that hasn’t played particularly well on the road, just lost at home to struggling Iowa State and is one-dimensional offensively (all pass, no run). Against the Cougars, especially in Provo, that’s trouble. Pick: BYU
Boise State (+3) at San Diego State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: Massive game in the Mountain West that carries playoff implications: The two-loss Aztecs possess a narrow path into the CFP but must win out and hope the moon and the stars align. The three-loss Broncos will be without injured quarterback Maddux Madsen against one of the best defenses in the land. Pick: San Diego State
Straight-up winners: Oregon, Arizona, Notre Dame, Tulsa, ASU, Alabama, USC, Utah, Washington, Texas, Ohio State, Washington State, BYU, San Diego State
Five-star special: Washington. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters faces his former team — he was fired by Purdue 11 months ago — and should have his unit ready to stand tall against an overmatched opponent.
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