After 10 weeks of utter mayhem across the sport, the initial College Football Playoff rankings unveiled Tuesday evening were comparatively sane and devoid of major controversy.
Perhaps the tame reaction was rooted in familiarity.
The top 10 teams in the CFP rankings closely mirrored the top 10 in the AP poll released Sunday. Six were in the same spot in both and only one, Oregon, deviated by more than one position: The Ducks were No. 6 in the AP poll but No. 9 in the CFP.
Why the (relative) lack of love for the Ducks? They are 0-1 against ranked opponents, with a decisive home loss to Indiana.
“Oregon, when you look at them in the top 10,” CFP selection committee chair Mack Rhoades said, “are (the) lowest ranked in terms of record strength.”
All in all, the sport’s most powerful conferences, the Big Ten and SEC, could claim victory in some form or fashion.
The former nailed down the top two spots, with No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana, while the latter produced more ranked teams than any conference — a reflection of the SEC’s unparalleled depth and success in early-season, non-conference matchups. It produced four of the top six teams in the CFP rankings and accounted for nine of the 25 spots.
The Big Ten placed seven teams in the rankings, but four were near the bottom: No. 19 USC, No. 20 Iowa, No. 21 Michigan and No. 23 Washington. (All four have two losses.)
Add the SEC’s total and the two leagues accounted for 16 of the 25 teams.
Beyond the heavyweights, the Big 12 stood as the biggest winner, a stark contrast to its fate throughout the 2024 rankings cycle.
The conference placed two teams in the top 10 on Tuesday evening, No. 7 BYU and No. 8 Texas Tech — they will square off Saturday in Lubbock — while Utah was slotted 13th, several spots above expectations.
Granted, the undefeated Cougars were behind three teams with one loss (Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi), which will undoubtedly rankle some fans and administrators in the Big 12 footprint.
But the committee’s placement of BYU and Texas Tech sets up the Big 12 for the endgame it desires: If the Cougars and Red Raiders only lose to each other (on Saturday and in the conference championship game), the Big 12 could send a second team into the CFP through the at-large pool.
Last year, the Big 12 produced just one playoff team, Arizona State, the conference champion, while the ACC grabbed two bids.
That scenario could flip in 2025 based on the committee’s treatment of the ACC on Tuesday evening: Its highest-ranked team, No. 14 Virginia, was behind the Big 12 trio — and that wasn’t even the most blatant snub. Miami (6-2) was slotted eight spots below Notre Dame (6-2) despite a head-to-head victory.
“Head-to-head really matters when the teams are comparable at the margins,” Rhoades said, suggesting Notre Dame was held in vastly higher esteem than the Hurricanes.
But the ACC wasn’t alone in the cold-shoulder department.
The Group of Five conferences were excluded from the rankings altogether despite possessing a slew of one-loss teams with victories over Power Four opponents.
(Memphis, which is 8-1 and beat Arkansas, was viewed as the Group of Five team most likely to crack the CFP rankings.)
To a certain extent, the development is meaningless. Because there are four power conferences but five automatic bids, the best team from the G5 leagues is guaranteed a spot regardless of the final rankings (Dec. 7).
The other big winner not affiliated with the Big Ten or SEC was, naturally, Notre Dame.
The Irish lost early to Miami and Texas A&M but have won six in a row and were ranked 10th. In that position, they are effectively guaranteed a berth so long as they don’t lose for a third time.
“When we look at the tape,” Rhoades said, “we think Notre Dame is a really solid football team, (on) both sides of the ball.”
And if Notre Dame qualifies for the CFP, there would be just six at-large spots, not seven, to split among the non-champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.
Notre Dame could box out a second team from the Big 12 or a fourth team from the Big Ten or, perhaps, a fifth team from the SEC.
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