After multiple steps to move towards the center, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has taken a decided lurch to the left, enlisting progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to help him pass Proposition 50, the controversial redistricting measure.
Indeed, Newsom recently shared an ad featuring the star progressive congresswoman, urging Californians to vote for Prop. 50 as a way to “stop” President Donald Trump. There is also a similar Spanish-language ad aimed at California’s large Hispanic population.
To be sure, AOC has long sought to raise her national profile, but campaigning for a ballot measure 3,000 miles away from her New York district suggests that both sides hope to benefit.
For Newsom, he clearly believes that in order to win – and position himself as Democrats’ leader ahead of his own 2028 presidential bid – he must court progressives.
And for her part, as Axios reported, AOC’s appearance in the middle of a California ballot measure debate comes as her team is preparing a 2028 run for either the White House or the Senate.
While California’s deep-blue electorate is probably more receptive to AOC than most other states, Newsom’s strategy of courting the far-left carries significant risks, both for this vote and for his longer term viability in a presidential general election.
Moreover, by nationalizing the fight over Prop. 50, should it not pass, Newsom runs the tremendous risk of turning a local defeat into a national embarrassment.
To that point, despite AOC’s high favorability among Democrats – two-thirds (65%) have a favorable view of her, per Economist/YouGov – she is a liability for Newsom among Independents.
Just 3-in-10 (31%) of this critical voting bloc have a favorable view of AOC in the same poll, while nationally, she is 6-points underwater (34% favorable vs. 40% unfavorable).
At the same time, AOC is capable of rallying California’s younger, progressive voters, which Newsom needs if he wants to have any chance of winning the special election.
And, having staked his reputation – and leadership role within the Democratic party – on passing the ballot measure, polling data reinforces that Newsom is left with few options.
According to an Emerson College survey, among California voters, the slimmest of majorities (50.6%) say they plan to vote for Proposition 50, while 49% plan to either oppose it (34%) or are undecided (15%).
Those findings – razor thin margins for Newsom – dovetail with other public polls, such as this from UC Berkeley, which showed 48% of Californians planning to vote yes, with a majority (52%) either opposed (32%) or unsure (20%).
However, a closer look at the data underscores the role Newsom hopes progressives will play.
In the Emerson survey, support for Prop. 50 is highest among young, college educated Democrats – the core of the progressive wing.
Similarly, the UC Berkeley poll shows that three-quarters (76%) of voters who identify as “strongly liberal” back Newsom’s effort, more than 30-points higher than moderates (42%).
Taken together, Newsom’s steps to enlist AOC reflect the growing importance and power of the progressive faction of a Democratic Party still struggling to find its way.
In turn, as progressives become even more important for Democratic candidates, the party as a whole, but particularly Newsom, are playing a risky game.
As the 2024 election strongly indicated, Democrats alienated a sizable share of the electorate with their recent move to the left.
Not only did Donald Trump win a second term, but Republicans also took both chambers of Congress and the national conversation has turned into criticism or, outside of the major cities, outright rejection of progressive positions.
California is no exception.
Despite Newsom’s massive ad blitz and money advantage – he alone has raised $70 million – voters remain skeptical of abolishing the independent commission that currently draws the state’s congressional districts.
In that same vein, Donald Trump did considerably better in California in 2024 compared to his own past, as well as previous GOP candidates.
Trump flipped 10 counties in the Golden State, and increased his vote share in 45, while former VP Kamala Harris – the hometown candidate – won almost 2 million votes fewer than former President Biden won in 2020.
Further, a number of state and local elections in California have shown that, while in no way a purple state, opposition to progressive politics is solid.
Whether it was the recall of San Francisco’s far-left DA, replacing that city’s progressive mayor with a centrist Democrat, or overwhelmingly passing Prop 36 to strengthen criminal penalties, Californians have slowly – but noticeably – begun moving from far-left closer to the center.
Ultimately, with midterms tending to have lower turnout than presidential elections, Newsom and AOC may be able to bring out enough young progressives to pass partisan redistricting.
And yet, with Newsom openly depending on the progressive wing of his party, he is opening himself up to considerable risks and potential vulnerabilities down the road.
Specifically, Newsom must now try to balance appealing to this ever-more critical voting bloc, while positioning himself as a moderate if he hopes to have any shot at winning a general election for president.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.