If the polling is correct, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is well on his way to boosting his front-runner status for Democrats’ 2028 presidential nomination.
Indeed, after taking a leading role in the campaign to pass Proposition 50 – a ballot measure which would allow California to redraw Congressional districts to give Democrats more seats – it now looks like Newsom’s efforts have paid off.
More than 6-in-10 (62%) California likely voters will vote yes on Prop. 50 according to a recent CBS News poll.
Likewise, a majority (56%) of likely California voters – including a nearly identical 55% of Independents – said they plan to support Prop. 50, versus slightly more than 4-in-10 (43%) who plan to oppose, per Public Policy Institute of California polling.
To be sure, Prop. 50 was a gamble for Newsom, given the stakes.
When he proposed the ballot measure over the summer, ostensibly as a response to GOP redistricting in other states, it was evident that he saw this as a way to raise his profile ahead of a 2028 presidential campaign.
Were Prop. 50 to fail, as I wrote in these pages at the time, Newsom would have appeared ineffective on his home turf, dealing his presidential ambitions a tremendous blow.
Moreover, initial polling from this summer gave Newsom very little room for optimism.
As Citrin Center polling showed at the time, nearly two-thirds (64%) of California voters – and 61% of California Democrats – preferred keeping California’s independent redistricting commission versus 36% who supported giving politicians that power.
It now appears that Newsom’s gamble paid off, and in doing so, answered a question I posed here over one month ago: will Californians’ dislike of Donald Trump be enough to push Prop 50 over the finish line?
Politically astute, Newsom doubled down on that approach – even though Trump has largely avoided this fight – and the data now appears to validate that strategy.
Put another way, Newsom successfully turned a referendum on a blatantly political move into a referendum on Donald Trump, and he wisely did so in a state where anti-Trump feelings permeate deeper than any other state, and he succeeded.
According to the aforementioned CBS poll, of the 62% of voters planning to vote yes, three-quarters said their top reason for supporting Prop. 50 was “to oppose Donald Trump” while “opposing national Republicans” (70%) was the 2nd most common answer.
Similarly, among the 56% of likely voters who said they’d support Prop 50 in the PPIC poll, there is near unanimous (95%) disapproval of the job President Trump is doing.
To that end, a TrueDot survey conducted over the summer revealed that, among national Democrats, support for California’s redistricting stood at 63% – if the measure was framed as standing up to President Trump and Republicans.
Taken together, Newsom saw an opportunity to nationalize the Prop 50 campaign – with himself and Trump at the center – and appeal to the nearly two-thirds of national Democrats who supported his efforts, hoping that Californians would come around.
At the same time, nationalizing a state issue allowed Newsom to endear himself to Democratic donors across the country, an invaluable resource when he inevitably launches a campaign.
According to a Politico analysis, the governor “brought in more than 100,000 new-to-Newsom” donors – people who have not previously donated to any of his campaigns – with more than half coming from outside the state.
Those donors – and the data they already provided – along with the fundraising infrastructure, will also give Newsom a considerable leg up in a Democratic primary.
Further, while there is no guarantee that those donors stick around through a presidential primary, the number of new donors, along with more than 80% being small-dollar contributors, shows the inroads Newsom has made with grassroots Democrats.
Moreover, even though nothing is official yet, it now appears that Golden State Republicans have thrown in the towel.
As Politico reported, GOP leaders in the state have essentially shut down the oppose Prop. 50 campaign, and its major donors, such as Charles Munger Jr. have shut their wallets, with Munger’s Protect Voters First PAC slashing spending from $4 million per week to less than $300.
While Republicans have shut down their campaign, supporters of Prop. 50 remain enthusiastic, and continue hammering away.
The PAC Reproductive Freedom for All recently rolled out an ad in support of the ballot measure as a way to protect abortion access, and the Yes on 50 PAC even emailed donors to tell them they had enough money and could stop donating.
As positive as these developments have been for Newsom, particularly vis-à-vis a future Democratic Party, risks still remain. In a general election, Newsom will have to explain to Independents how this – blatantly partisan – move contributes to defending democracy.
Unlike Newsom, the Republican governors who have led their own states’ redistricting efforts are not considered presidential contenders, making this issue unique to the California governor.
Ultimately however, one has to win a primary before getting to the general election, and should the final Prop. 50 vote resemble recent polls, Newsom will have an advantage that will be difficult for any other Democrat to overcome.
Of course, this far out from the 2028 primaries, anything could happen. But, among the field of Democrats currently considered potential contenders, none will have the same bona fides when it comes to taking on Trump and the GOP.
As such, it is entirely possible that in 18 months, we will look back on the fight to pass Prop. 50 as the moment Newsom cemented himself as the Democratic nominee for president of the United States.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.