Later today, MPs will vote for the first time on plans to reform the UK’s welfare system. It’s not a moment government ministers are likely to be looking forward to.
These plans, which will mainly affect recipients of Universal Credit and the Personal Independence Payment, have been controversial from the start.
They were first unveiled by Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall in March, shortly before Chancellor Rachel Reeves made them a central element of her spring statement.
Both argued cuts were badly needed to secure the future of the welfare state as costs continue to balloon, and that those on benefits needed to be encouraged into work.
But many emboldened Labour MPs said they could not face voting to cut off support for those who need it.
A rebellion of more than 120 backbenchers appears to have been staved off by a raft of concessions made last week, but Sir Keir Starmer is still facing one of the trickiest votes since he became PM almost exactly a year ago.
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Here’s all we know about the bill ahead of the second reading vote this evening.
What is the welfare bill?
The full name of the bill that will be debated today is hefty: it’s called the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill.
That name, though, gets to the heart of the changes that are being proposed. If enacted, the legislation would make two of the headline changes announced earlier this year.
Personal Independence Payment (PIP)
In order to get PIP, which is meant to help pay for the additional costs faced by people with disabilities, would-be recipients are assessed on how much assistance they need for everyday tasks.
The person is rated on a points scale of 0 to 12. At the moment, they would need a score of eight or more across the range of tasks to qualify. Citizens Advice has more information here.
If the bill goes ahead, there would be an additional requirement that the person must score at least four on at least one of the tasks to qualify.
That won’t apply to everyone after changes announced by the government last week, though – find more on those details below.
Universal Credit (UC)
There are two parts to Universal Credit – the standard allowance, which is for all recipients, and the health element, for people with disabilities and health conditions that affect their ability to work.
Under the new bill, the standard allowance would increase above inflation for the next four years.
However, the health element would be halved for new recipients from April 2026 and then frozen for the next four years.
The government argues this would ‘support people towards work, address perverse incentives and to start to improve basic adequacy’.
What changes have been announced?
Facing the very real possibility of a Labour rebellion dooming a major government bill, government figures held crisis talks with MPs last week.
The results of those talks were revealed in full yesterday. They include concessions on both the PIP and UC parts of the bill.
First, PIP: the changes mean the additional requirement outlined above would not apply to current recipients, who would continue to get their payment under the old terms.
Only new claimants from November 2026 onwards would be assessed according to the new requirements. A consultation into PIP would also take place, to be published next autumn.
For UC, Liz Kendall told MPs yesterday that current recipients of the health top-up would see their income – combined with the standard allowance – rise at least in line with inflation for the rest of the Parliament.
The same would also go for new claimants with severe lifelong health conditions and those at the end of life.
Her announcement responded to concerns over the effects of a proposed freeze on the health top-up for current claimants – though Kendall did not explicitly say this freeze would not go ahead.
Who are the ‘Labour rebels’ against it?
Longstanding Labour MP Dame Meg Hillier led the first ‘reasoned amendment’ which aimed to stop the bill in its tracks, gaining a lot of traction last week.
At its peak, more than 120 backbenchers from the party were signed onto it. That figure was enough to overturn the government’s huge majority.
Among them were seasoned rebels from the left of the party, including Richard Burgon and Nadia Whittome, as well as those who are typically more loyal, such as Sarah Owen and Dame Meg.
The signatories also included one former government minister: former Transport Secretary Louise Haigh.
A YouGov poll found 40% of the public was also opposed to the initial proposals, while 26% said they backed them.
Many of the rebels thought the vote today would be pulled, but instead the concessions outlined above were made. They appear to have won around enough MPs to ensure the bill will pass its second reading.
But lots could still vote against, and several are also expected to abstain. The exact numbers will make a big difference to how things pan out.
What happens if the bill is rejected?
If the bill is rejected in today’s vote – held on the first day of Disability Pride Month – the government will have to go back to the drawing board in its effort to reform the welfare system.
But just as significantly, the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves would take a massive hit and the government would be plunged into a serious crisis.
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