Wired magazine may have eerily predicted the future
In the late 90s, the future couldn’t look brighter. Economies were booming and, for a brief moment, it seemed as if humanity was about to ride a wave of techno-optimism into a utopian future.
While many outlandish predictions about what the future might hold were mooted, there are none more infamous than that posited by technology magazine Wired which in July 1997 published a cover story titled ‘The Long Boom’.
It boldly claimed: ‘We’re facing 25 years of prosperity, freedom and a better environment for the world – you got a problem with that?’
The infamous ‘Long Boom’ cover from 1997 (Picture: WiRED)
Penned by authors Peter Schwartz and Peter Leyden, who later spun the concept off into a book, the article is full of standard futurist fare. Some of it, like the emergence of the internet or the rise of China as a global superpower, has already come to pass. Other predictions, like nanotechnology, the end of nation-states or a manned space flight to Mars, remain the realm of science-fiction.
However, nestled away in a sidebar lies a far more ominous prospect – 10 ‘Scenario Spoilers’ dreamt up by the authors which could derail humanity’s otherwise inevitable road to utopia.
Although the list was meant as little more than an afterthought, today it makes for sobering reading- not just one of the predictions came true, but all of them.
From Russia’s devolution into a mafia state, to a rise in terrorism and a global pandemic sowing fear amongst the population, Schwartz and Leyden did end up predicting the future, albeit seemingly by accident.
Here are all the ways the Long Boom turned into an even longer bust.
The prophetic ‘scenario spoilers’ which came back to haunt us (Picture: WiRED)
Tensions between US and China escalate into a new Cold War
Following China’s emergence as a major global superpower in the early 21st century, tensions between Beijing and Washington DC have become increasingly tense, with both politicians and academics likening the conflict to a new Cold War.
During his initial election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly referred to China as a threat to Americans, accusing them of currency manipulation and later imposing significant tariffs on Chinese-imported goods during his presidency, sparking a trade war between the two nations which continues today.
In retaliation, Beijing has been accused of engaging in widespread nuclear, corporate and cyber espionage against the US, as well as committing a number of high-profile cybertattacks on American institutions and infrastructure.
In July 2020, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray called China the ‘greatest long-term threat’ to the United States. He said that ‘the FBI is now opening a new China-related counterintelligence case every 10 hours. Of the nearly 5,000 active counterintelligence cases currently underway across the country, almost half are related to China.’
Geopolitically, China’s assertiveness in territorial disputes, such as its actions in the South China Sea and tensions over Taiwan, have further fueled tensions. The US reinforced its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region and bolstered alliances, while China expanded its naval capabilities and conducted military exercises in contested waters.
Geopolitical tensions between the US and China have heated up. Pictured are Xi Jinping and and Joe Biden (Picture: Getty)
New technologies turn out to be a bust
Despite a period of widespread technological innovation throughout the 2000s, arguably culminating in the invention of the smartphone, technology is now widely agreed to have stagnated and productivity has tanked with it.
Much-hyped developments such as the Metaverse and Elon Musk’s hyperloop ended up as catastrophic failures, and the century’s biggest innovation- the Internet- is widely agreed to have declined significantly in quality due to a process which has since been coined as ‘enshittification’.
Meanwhile a combination of low wage growth and economic decline has seen productivity decrease every year since the financial crash in 2008. Upcoming technologies such as AI are threatening to affect up to 40% of jobs and have been accused of flooding the market with bots and poor-quality, plagiarised material.
AI has been accused of putting jobs at risk and flooding the public sphere with bots and spam (Picture: Metro)
Russia devolves into a mafia-run state that threatens Europe’s stability
Since Vladimir Putin’s rise to power in 1999, Russia has increasingly embraced kleptocracy and has been widely accused of being a mafia state.
Under Putin, Russia has devolved into a far-right nationalist state with aggressively imperial ambitions, and is responsible for the biggest threat to global stability since World War II with their full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The invasion has prompted Europe to seriously consider the prospect of an all-out war with Russia, and has seen a vast re-drawing of socio-political alliances and battle lines.
Opponents of Putin’s regime are frequently found dead in brutal fashions, and those in his inner circle are frequently accused of cronyism, nepotism and widespread, industrial-scale corruption. In his book Mafia State, author Luke Harding claims that most people familiar with Russia view Putin’s role as essentially that of a mafia boss, dividing the spoils and preventing turf wars between rival clans of an essentially criminal elite.
Vladimir Putin’s Russia is often compared to a state-run mafia syndicate (Picture: AP)
The breakdown of European integration
Somewhat at odds with the rest of the list, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted European countries to enhance their military cooperation and security measures. NATO, in particular, has strengthened its presence in Eastern Europe and increased defence spending among member states in response to the security challenges posed by Russia’s actions.
European countries have also engaged in joint military exercises and efforts to bolster their collective defence capabilities, fostering closer ties and cooperation within the region. The introduction of the Euro in 1999 also helped foster closer economic ties amongst European nation states.
However, the one notable exception to this is Brexit, which has had a significant impact on Britain’s relationship with Europe by creating economic uncertainty, political friction, diplomatic strain, and a loss of influence within European institutions.
Brexit also caused the EU to lose its second-largest economy, its third-most populous country, and the second-largest net contributor to the EU budget. The continent also had to deal with a wave of right-wing populism which emerged in its wake.
Britain’s decision to leave the EU has strained ties between it and the rest of Europe (Picture: Shutterstock)
Climate change causes an ecological catastrophe
Even though the worst effects of climate change are still yet to be felt, the issue has emerged as one of the most defining crisies of our time and has led ecologists to declare humanity as living through a ‘climate catastrophe.’
According to the UN, 2015-2019 were the five warmest years on record while 2010-2019 was the warmest decade on record. The Earth is now about 1.1°C warmer than it was in and we are currently not on track to meet the Paris Agreement target to keep global temperature from exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels- considered the upper limit to avoid the worst fallout from climate change.
If current carbon emissions continue, the global temperature could increase by as much as 4.4°C by the end of the century, which will in turn affect the resources available to produce food.
Up to 811 million people in the world faced hunger in 2020- around 161 million more than in 2019.
Climate change has wreaked havoc on the the world’s ecology (Picture: Getty)
A rise in crime and terrorism causes the world to pull back in fear
One of the first ‘spoilers’ to come true. Following the World Trade Centre attack on September 11, 2001, the world was plunged into a global ‘War on Terror’ – and the effects are still being felt today.
After waging war against Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and other Islamist groups throughout the Middle East in the 2000s, ISIS later emerged as a key exporter of terrorism in the mid-2010s, which saw terror-related deaths peak at an all-time high of 44,576 in 2014. Other notable terror attacks included the 7/7 bombings in London, the Paris shootings in 2015 and the Manchester bombings in 2017.
Meanwhile, the US has seen a staggering rise in the number of mass shootings, which occur in their hundreds every year. 2021 saw 686 mass shootings take place – the highest number on record and almost double the total recorded five years prior.
Notable shootings such as Columbine, Las Vegas and the Sandy Hook massacre have caused widespread fear amongst the American populace and sparked a fiercely polarising debate about gun control.
The World Trade Centre attacks plunged the world into a decades-long War on Terror (Picture: Shutterstock)
A rise in pollution overwhelms the health system
Global cancer rates have risen sharply over the past 25 years, with the World Health Organisation predicting over 35 million new cancer cases in 2050- a 77% increase from the estimated 20 million cases in 2022.
Tobacco, alcohol and obesity are key factors behind the increasing incidence of cancer, says the organisation, with air pollution still a key driver of environmental risk factors- however the number of pollution-related deaths has remained mostly the same, averaging around 6 million casualties a year since 1990.
Yet despite this, health systems around the world still find themselves overwhelmed for a variety of reasons, including underfunding of resources, an ageing population and casualties from various global conflicts.
Health systems around the world have found themselves increasingly overwhelmed (Picture: Getty)
Energy Prices go through the roof due to unrest in the Middle East
The past few years have seen energy prices rise dramatically in the UK, due to a rise in the price of wholesale gas which energy regulator Ofcom claims is due to world events, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
The destruction of the Nord stream pipeline in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also had a dramatic effect on the price of gas throughout Europe.
In Britain, these events saw the price of household energy bills increase by up 54% in 2022, prompting the government to implement a price cap to prevent energy expenses from spiralling. The rise in energy, plus other factors such as inflation and supply chain issues caused by Brexit contributed to the Cost of Living Crisis, which many people in the UK are still dealing with.
The destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline has caused energy crises around the world (Picture: Reuters))
An uncontrollable plague spreads like wildfire among the populace
The Covid pandemic, which originated in China in late 2019 before quickly spreading worldwide, was the worst outbreak humanity had faced in nearly a century.
Characterised by its high transmissibility and severe respiratory symptoms, the virus prompted widespread lockdowns and an unprecedented public health crisis.
An estimated 767million people worldwide became infected with the disease, which resulted in around 7million deaths.
Despite a widespread vaccination program and a number of drastic public health measures, WHO warns that humanity remains extremely vulnerable to the next pandemic and that many governments learned ‘the wrong lessons’ from the pandemic.
The coronavirus pandemic brought the entire world to a standstill (Picture: Getty Images)
Social and cultural backlash stops humanity in its tracks
The 2000s saw a number of advancements in personal liberty and women’s rights, including the legalisation of gay marriage and the #MeToo movement, which sought to shed light on issues of sexual harassment and gender-based violence.
However, these gains have been met by a growing cultural backlash, as a wave of right-wing populist have sought to repeal much of the societal progress of the 20th and 21st century.
On 24 June, 2022, America’s top court overturned the 1973 Roe v Wade ruling which had guaranteed women the right to an abortion, and US lawmakers, have made numerous attempts to block or repeal progressive legislation.
Reactionary movemments have sought to undo the societal progress of recent decades (Picture: Getty)
In the UK, hate crimes against transgender people have risen by 186% in the last five years, which have taken place against a backdrop of the government withdrawing support for trans people and the growth of divisive and demonising rhetoric about trans people in society.
The decision to leave the EU was also widely seen as a regressive move both socially and economically, and was followed by an increase in race and religious hate crime of 15-25% in England and Wales.
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