No significant politician in California likes gerrymandering, the process by which politicians determine who gets to Congress and who does not, as managed by political operatives.
When Californians added congressional districts to the nonpartisan state legislative district drawing process adopted narrowly in 2008, the idea of taking control of congressional seats away from political parties passed by a margin of more than 60-40 percent.
So there is natural distaste when Californians consider this fall whether to permit Gov. Gavin Newsom and the state’s dominant Democratic politicians to redo the congressional districts last redrawn in a non-partisan manner in 2020.
But if the polls are correct and President Trump remains abysmally unpopular in California, then this measure just might pass, with new districts put in place by late fall or early spring so that candidates will have plenty of time to file for the June primary election.
If this does not happen, it will probably mark the end of Newsom’s on-again, off-again 2028 campaign for president.
For he needs to chalk up some wins over the Republicans if he wants to assume the Democratic mantle. So far, Newsom has been by far the most combative Democrat in the running, not afraid to do Fox News interviews, debate major GOP figures and frequently act defiant of Trump.
There is little Democrats hate more than watching Republicans change districts seemingly willy-nilly in states they control. It’s the prime method by which they’ve maintained their razor-thin three-vote majority in Congress. They seem to engage in this exercise about once in four years, rather than the conventional once in ten.
Just now Texas Gov. Greg Abbott plans to “steal” five nominally Democrat-leaning congressional districts in the Houston area to help his party maintain its thin House margin.
Houston, only slightly smaller than Los Angeles, is normally a Democratic town, with Dems outnumbering Republicans considerably in all of surrounding Harris County. Now, though, Republican graphic artists have drawn five new districts covering most of that county. They’re shaped a lot like concentric horseshoes, with Democrats pushed into just one larger-looking district so more Republicans can be crammed into the others.
Seeing this, Newsom was inspired enough to notice that similar surgery could be performed on five California House seats now held by Republicans. But unlike Texas Republicans, Newsom cannot act without the voters’ consent.
He first needs the Legislature to set a special election for no later than November, so that voters get a chance to change the 2010 Prop. 20 and make an occasional districting redo legal. No, a simple legislative vote for this would not be enough. In this state, it takes one initiative to reverse another. And this would be a major reverse.
For sure, the always vocal Reform California movement headed by San Diego Republican Assemblyman Carl DeMaio, has promised every sort of legal action it can dream up to stop this.
With a state court system stacked high with Newsom appointees, it’s possible that kind of GOP opposition would be kicked to the sideline quickly.
But no one can safely bet on this. Be fairly sure, this will go to an autumn vote, no matter who likes it or not.
Newsom needs this one. Yes, he loves to get down into the trenches with Trump, but his challenge and the money to be invested in it has never been so much.
Some call this a mere ploy by Newsom to deter the Texas Republicans from their plan. Right now, it does not look that way.
Newsom appears to mean business, not something he will allow to cave in quickly.
But he must keep the drive going, or he will look like a mere bluffer using one of his very last chances at influencing legislators to help out his national party.
If he manages to pull it off, despite charges from many sides that he’s attempting something very anti-democratic, he will become a Democratic hero who has accomplished more than any other party mate in keeping Trump from exercising the extreme power he arrived with for his second White House term. If not, Democrats will likely look elsewhere for their next standard bearer.
Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com.