The reasons are many: Tax fatigue. Affordability. No trust in county government. Conservative backlash.
Those could be some of the causes why Measure ER, Los Angeles County’s half-percentage point (0.50%) hike in sales tax — to raise revenues for county healthcare services slashed by Congress and President Trump — is losing among voters. The measure was placed on the June 2 primary ballot by a 4-1 vote of the Board of Supervisors, with Fifth District Supervisor Kathryn Barger in opposition.
As of Friday evening, Measure ER, the Essential Services Restoration Act for Los Angeles County, continues to show the “no” vote in the lead with 51.5%, as compared to 48.5% for “yes.” The measure gained ground in this count, but is behind by 43,843 votes, according to the latest tally on Friday, June 5 at 5 p.m. It needs a majority of votes for passage.
The measure has trailed in every count and update since the night of June 2 but on Friday the gap narrowed. Still, this has buoyed the No on ER campaign and others, while the yes campaign is not reacting, preferring to hold on to hope of a surge.
The Registrar-Reorder has counted 1,617,881 ballots, with 543,180 remaining to be processed, according to a statement released Friday evening.
“With ballots still being counted, it is still too early to know the final outcome of Measure ER. We are closely watching the results and will provide an update once additional votes have been counted,” said Yes on ER Campaign Manager Teresa Eilers on the afternoon of June 3.
Many observers point to Barger, whose name was listed on the ballot in opposition, as a major factor in the measure losing. On Friday, Barger said in a statement that she’s also tracking the daily ballot count updates. However, in her response, she hit on affordability and trust.
“Los Angeles County residents already shoulder a significant tax burden and I believe any proposal that asks more of taxpayers must be accompanied by strong accountability, transparency, and a clearly defined purpose,” she said in her statement.
Since cuts from the H.R. 1 bill affects the entire state, and all states, the solution in California needs to come from state legislators and re-funding should come from Sacramento, Barger said. “Not through a regressive tax that puts more strain on working families and local businesses,” she added.
The opposition, calling their campaign “No Blank Checks,” included 22 cities within the county opposed to the measure, along with the California Contract Cities Association, the Los Angeles County Taxpayers Association and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.
“It is a taxpayer revolt,” declared Aidan Chao, chairman of the L.A. County Taxpayers group. “It is a watershed moment. This is the first time L.A. County rejected a sales tax in my recent memory,” he said.
He did not think additional ballot counts would push the measure toward the win column. “We are feeling really good about it and we’re projecting confidence,” Chao said.
However, Tom Hogen-Esch, professor of political science at Cal State Northridge, said the proponents do have a slim chance of reversing the results by the time the last ballot is counted on June 26. “The late ballots coming in are mail-in ballots and they tend to skew more toward Democrat voters” more likely to approve tax raises, he said.
Yet, like many other political observers, he also mentioned the economy and higher prices as a reason for more voting against higher taxes.
“All over the country, the electorate is in a foul mood,” he said on Friday. “One of the big reasons is high gas prices. People feel stressed. If it doesn’t pass, a big part of it is the larger issue of affordability.”
Getting a majority to approve a measure for higher sales taxes countywide was a hard hill to climb, especially during the Iran war that blocked the Strait of Hormuz and prevented flow of oil and raised gasoline prices. It also increased the cost of diesel, raising the bill for deliveries to restaurants and grocery stores that gets passed on to consumers, said Jack Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College.
“People are getting slammed by higher prices so it is not a super positive atmosphere to pay an additional tax,” Pitney said on Friday.
He also mentioned Barger’s name appearing on the ballot. He said the supervisor’s opposition stood out among what he called the usual anti-tax suspects.
“The measure had credible opposition, like Kathryn Barger for example. She is not a wacko. She’s credible,” he said.
Chao mentioned Rosemead City Councilmember Sandra Armento, and Temple City Councilmember Cynthia Sternquist, both well-known and respected city council members in L.A. County, who were listed on the ballot as two of the opponents.
Marcel Rodarte, executive director of the California Contract Cities, said the cities in opposition want to control their own destiny. Many had city tax measures on the ballot on June 2 that are passing by wide margins. Those with sales tax measures included: Commerce, Gardena, La Puente, Lomita and San Marino. All were leading, according to the latest election returns.
So it’s not taxes some residents oppose, it is county taxes that they see as lacking accountability, Rodarte said.
“It was a tough position, but a lot of our folks said ‘If I’m going to pay taxes, it should help my city directly,’ ” he said.
In letters to the board, many mayors and council members from smaller cities said after the passage of Measure A for homeless services, and before that, Measure H for the same, they didn’t receive a proportionate amount of revenue. “When none comes back to your city, it is harder for them to support that,” Rodarte said.
Chao’s group, as well as the Howard Jarvis group, were suspicious that the measure was put on the ballot as a general tax, which means the revenues get placed into the county’s general fund. The measure included a distribution plan that promised monies would go toward healthcare services and safety-net providers, county hospitals and clinics, and public health programs.
Rodarte said his cities were worried that the Board of Supervisors, which will have a new member in December, could re-direct those ER funds for other purposes. The No Blank Checks group’s website said the general tax doesn’t ensure accountability. “That means there are no enforceable guarantees that the money will go where supporters claim it will go.”
Jim Mangia, CEO and president of St. John’s Community Health and a leader of the coalition to restore county services, said in February that cities were being short-sighted. Often more than a third of some of the residents living in opposition cities will be losing Medi-Cal and severely affected by the federal cutbacks.
He said that a sales tax increase that will cost $5 per month for a family of four and excludes groceries and prescription drugs is worth the price of saving health care for their needy residents. “If you are talking about the question of affordability, one of the largest is health care costs,” he said on Tuesday, Feb. 17 in an interview.
Hogen-Esch said it can come down to the way voters look at tax increases when they fill out their ballots.
“City taxes are going to services they can see on a daily basis, like police, fire and street repairs. The idea of someone else’s healthcare is further a field,” he said.
Roxanne Hope, chair of the Republican Party of Los Angeles, mentioned conservative candidate Steve Pratt who is battling Los Angeles City Councilwoman Nithya Raman for a chance to face-off with Mayor Karen Bass in November. Also, conservative Republican Steve Hilton will most likely face-off against Democrat Xavier Becerra in November for California governor.
“It’s a ‘had enough?’ election,” said Hope. “We can’t keep paying 5-star prices and getting 1/2-star services.”
Barger said the cuts to the healthcare system is a real threat to thousands of L.A. County residents and Californians. “We need sustainable solutions to address the financial pressures confronting hospitals, emergency rooms, and healthcare providers,” she said in a statement.
But she’s held the position that a sales tax increase was not the way to correct the problem. However, that is still up to the voters.