The Golden State Warriors have been waiting for this moment for half a decade, if not longer:
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks are heading for a divorce. He is likely to be traded in the coming weeks or, at the very latest, this upcoming offseason.
Folks, it’s on.
And the Dubs… can’t get him.
Unless the Greek Freak proclaims that he wants to play for the Warriors and only the Warriors — a demand that has not been made and isn’t expected — Golden State will have to watch its (okay, Joe Lacob’s) dream of pairing Steph Curry with Giannis drift away.
The reason why this pipe dream is clogged couldn’t be simpler:
What can the Warriors offer the Bucks?
This isn’t free agency or a Carmelo Anthony-style negotiation. The Bucks might only have marginal leverage here, but it’s leverage nevertheless.
And it’s going to be very easy for them to say “no” to the Warriors’ best, all-in package.
Who wants an “everything hurts” Jimmy Butler right now? What about a gray Draymond Green? Brandin Podziemski might be a Milwaukee kid, but his value as a blue-chip trade piece has evaporated in recent months. And while Jonathan Kuminga might be on a tradable contract, this is the big leagues of NBA dealings — he’s a makeweight in this kind of megadeal at best.
The Warriors’ front office kept its powder dry for this specific expedition. They resisted smaller moves and marginal upgrades because they were hunting a whale. But by holding onto their chips for so long, their value degraded. Podziemski’s best asset to the Bucks is his hometown connection, while Kuminga is seeking a massive extension that neither Milwaukee nor any well-run team will want to pay. (I’m sure they’ll pass on the headache that is dealing with his agent, too.)
Sure, the Warriors have draft capital — controlled first-round picks in six of the next seven drafts — but that only goes so far in a conversation like this. There’s only so much you can spice up a bad dish.
If the Warriors are competing with the rest of the league, there is simply no way to create a package enticing enough for Milwaukee GM Jon Horst.
Because Horst cannot, under any circumstances, trade the greatest player in franchise history — the man who built a new arena and brought a title to a city that hadn’t seen one in 50 years —and sell his fanbase on a return headlined by Kuminga. The Bucks haven’t held off this inevitable Giannis exit just to land Podziemski.
Teams like the Bucks need more than just future picks; they need to keep a fanbase engaged enough not to write off the franchise for decades.
After all, how are things working out for the Jazz and Nets, who took the picks and little else and now look locked into rebuilds that will last longer than a half-decade?
Horst needs what Sam Presti is hoarding in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have so many draft picks they practically need a separate storage facility, plus young, blue-chip talent that has already popped. If OKC wants Giannis, they can outbid Golden State in a thousand different ways.
Horst needs what Houston can offer — picks, yes, but exciting young talent, too.
He needs what the Spurs can send north.
I could go on, but suffice it to say it’d be a while before we get to the Warriors on that list.
The Warriors are stuck in the middle class. They aren’t poor, but they aren’t rich enough to fly private — much less in a G800.
And that truth is going to feel like a cold, hard hangover from the “Light Years” era. For a long time, the Warriors operated under the assumption that the sheer gravitational pull of their dynasty, the allure of the Bay, and the magical aura of Curry would be enough to bend reality their way. They believed they could attract another league-changing superstar, as if they were the Lakers or the Knicks.
Instead, the best they landed was Butler, whose usefulness may have peaked with those final 30 games of last season.
The Warriors got high on their own supply. It’s not hitting as hard as it used to, though.
And so, once again, there is only one way the Warriors can be saved:
Curry to bail them out.
Yes, again.
I seriously doubt it happens, but you cannot ignore the whispers, the winks, and the All-Star weekend flirtations between Giannis and Curry. Giannis could go scorched earth on the Bucks and demand “Steph or nothing.”
But seeing as Giannis was keen on the Knicks just a couple of months ago, that bailout probably isn’t coming.
Giannis, a gentleman even in this era of scoundrels, likely wants to do right by the Bucks, too.
So Milwaukee will ask the whole league for best offers. The Warriors will send theirs.
And, in something that’s becoming a trend this season, the Warriors’ best simply won’t be good enough.