The NHL’s skyrocketing salary cap complicates the Blackhawks’ efforts to jump-start their ascension.
It has taken one advantage the Hawks had over many of their rivals — ample salary-cap space — and neutralized it, since most teams also now have ample space or are planning to have it soon.
With the cap set to jump by $7.5 million (to $95.5 million total) next season, 25 teams are currently set to enter the offseason with more than $11 million of space, and 15 are set to enter it with more than $20 million -(including the Hawks with $29.2 million), per PuckPedia.
And with increases of $8.5 and $9.5 million each of the next two summers already set in stone, teams know they can commit money long-term, as well.
As Hawks general manager Kyle Davidson outlined last week at the NHL combine, that means teams will have an easier time affording contract extensions for their own players, and more teams will have the money to vie for the limited number of players who do become available on the trade market or free agency.
Eventually, an MLB-esque gap between wealthier and poorer teams might emerge, which could benefit the deep-pocketed Hawks. People are skeptical that some smaller-market Canadian teams, for example, will be willing to spend all the way to a $113.5 million cap in 2027-28. But that’s not reality yet.
Partially as a result of the cap dynamics, and partially due to coincidence, there also aren’t many teams entering rebuilds right now and ready to sell off players this summer the way the Hawks did in 2022.
The Penguins might be the only rebuilder, in fact. The Bruins and Islanders might be wise to do the same, but it doesn’t appear they will — at least not yet. The Sabres, Canucks, Predators and Stars are keen on mixing up their rosters, but they seem to want different-but-equivalent NHL players back for whomever they trade.
Meanwhile, all of the teams that have recently undergone rebuilds (Sharks, Ducks, Mammoth, Canadiens) are eager to add, and plenty of established contenders (Hurricanes, Maple Leafs, Golden Knights, Jets) believe they’re one or two big pieces away from winning a Stanley Cup. Many dogs are sniffing around the yard.
All of that means the Hawks’ opportunities to bring in a marquee addition this summer will be limited, especially since Davidson isn’t willing to be as reckless as other GMs.
Sabres star JJ Peterka (whom new Hawks assistant Michael Peca coached in the AHL), Stars star Jason Robertson, Canucks star Elias Pettersson and Hurricanes-turned-Avalanche star Martin Necas — four high-profile names in the rumor mill — could be worth pursuing. But the prices to acquire any of them will be very high, and if those teams demand established players in return, the Hawks can’t offer what they’re looking for.
Meanwhile, Rangers youngster Will Cuylle or Stars rookie Mavrik Bourque could make sense and be easier to acquire, but they aren’t difference-makers to the same degree.
All of this has deepened Davidson’s belief that building from within is the smartest, most reliable way to approach team-building. When pressed about that at the combine, he laid his philosophy bare.
“You’ve got to draft well and develop well, and that’s got to be the core of your team moving forward,” Davidson said. “It’s just unrealistic to think, ‘Hey, I want to do something, so we’re going to just go do it.’ You’re playing fantasy hockey at that point.
“You’ve got to draft your players, you’ve got to develop your good players, and then along the way, if something comes up . . . you jump at it and you take advantage. You’re not outsmarting anyone. You’re probably just in a situation [where] you can acquire a player that benefits both sides. But you’ve got to have other teams who are looking to do something different than you.”
“That’s when you have to find the teams that make a match. If the whole league is trying to add, then no one is going to subtract. There’s not enough splashy players for everyone to add across the league. … You can’t just [say], ‘I want to add because I want to.’ I wish it was that easy. Every other team wishes it was that easy; every fan base wishes it was that easy. It’s really hard.
“And then … in free agency, there’s nice players, [but] for the good players, there’s a lot of competition. You’ve also got to be somewhere that it’s the right time and right place for them, as well. It’s complicated every step of the way.”
A devil’s advocate would respond that professional sports are a zero-sum game. Success can only be achieved at others’ expense. Outsmarting, outmaneuvering or in some way beating the competition is inherently necessary.
Sure, it’s complicated, but that’s no excuse. Eventually, Davidson will have to prove he can find a way to land the right players to augment this young roster. He acknowledged he’s aware of that.
“As we go, it’s more and more likely to acquire people that fit where we’re going and some gaps that we need to fill,” he said. “It’s something we’re always really exploring.”
But his belief in his methodical, build-from-within approach isn’t wavering.
“Our ascension’s going to come through the growth of our young players,” he said, intentionally repeating himself. “There’s no magic bullet to this. You acquire the talent, you develop the talent and then you try to add along the way.”
Notes
The results of a Twitter/X poll of 1,400 Hawks fans about whom they want to be the No. 3 pick were interesting: 35% want Porter Martone, 28% want James Hagens, 27% want Anton Frondell and 10% want Caleb Desnoyers. Many of those fans are going to be disappointed.
• Unsurprisingly, no Hawks came close to winning any NHL awards this year. Pat Maroon finished ninth in Masterton Trophy voting, Alex Vlasic and Teuvo Teravainen each received a few down-ballot votes for the Lady Byng Trophy and Ilya Mikheyev received one vote for the Selke Trophy.