With any luck, the 2026 race for California governor will be as bad as it gets.
From scandals, to corny tactics and platforms, to terrible analysis, this gubernatorial race has been a contest to forget.
The most memorable, and notorious, moment from the race was the ignoble exit of Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell. Swalwell was always a terrible candidate, with a weak record and red flags as far as the eye could see, but when multiple women came forward to accuse him of sexual misconduct, including rape, he was forced to drop his candidacy and resign from Congress.
Swalwell had just seemingly achieved front-runner status, for no good reason other than he invoked President Donald Trump as often as possible. It’s catnip to Democratic primary voters, who apparently want a fighter, and Swalwell seemed most likely to do it, even though his record against Trump was lousy.
So, he surged in polls even though it seemed he’d be a terrible governor.
The rape allegations, however, removed all doubt.
Prior to Swalwell, Democrats toggled between former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter and billionaire Tom Steyer. Both were curious choices: Steyer because the average Democratic voter believes billionaires are evil for, among other things, trying to buy elections, which Steyer has spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to do, and Porter because she has an off-putting personality that has alienated many would-be allies.
Quickly, voters learned more about Porter when video leaked of her getting indignant with a reporter who was asking her basic follow-up questions, which she didn’t like, which was followed not long after by another video of her abusing a staffer, telling her to “Get out of my f– shot” as the staffer tried saving her from using bad talking points.
Any momentum Porter might have had was blunted by the videos, and she’s been held back ever since. Steyer seems to be slightly more palatable to the broader electorate, though he’s struggled as well.
Recently, Steyer has taken hits that he made a lot of his money on oil and private prisons, which upsets Democratic voters, and that he’s spent $192 million of his own money on the campaign, with a large chunk allegedly devoted to buying endorsements and support from influencers.
The mess has led to the rise of former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, whose longtime top advisor just pleaded guilty to fraud after being busted in a scheme to steal funds from one of Becerra’s campaign accounts that was dormant.
Becerra says he’s the victim, and that could be true, but what is worse for a governor: incompetence or corruption?
Feeding the incompetent narrative is the fact that while HHS secretary, Becerra lost track of 85,000 immigrant children. His debate performances haven’t helped, with him pitching ridiculous ideas and invoking Trump’s name as much as possible (see: Swalwell).
What makes Becerra’s rise so ironic is that California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks has spent a significant amount of time this campaign trying to get low-polling Democrats, like Becerra for much of the race, to drop out to avoid a possible lockout of two Republicans advancing.
Becerra’s campaign was a dud, but he picked up support when Swalwell dropped as voters looked for anyone besides Steyer and Porter to latch onto. I’m sure Becerra’s glad he ignored Hicks.
Ironically, the fears of two Republicans advancing were driven by Democratic data vendor Paul Mitchell, who built a prediction machine using absurd inputs like betting odds and polls that cannot account for things like rape allegations. It’s a fun tool but probably shouldn’t have defined coverage of the race for a month or two and inspired a party chairman to spend money trying to push his own candidates out of the race.
The race left relatively normal Democrats like former Controller Betty Yee, former Speaker Toni Atkins, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan struggling to gain traction despite having seemingly better temperaments, resumes, and ideas. That’s not what Democratic voters want, apparently.
On the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco have been running relatively even, though Hilton has consolidated support recently. This side race has been defined by Hilton trying to push Bianco to end his own candidacy for the good of the party to avoid two Democrats getting through.
Much of the criticism of the race has complained of weak candidates, though that’s not exactly what’s made the race lame. Sure, some candidates are terrible (I see you, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond!), but the ones with the best bios and temperament have struggled to catch on (minus Thurmond, of course, who has neither of those things but also hasn’t caught on).
What’s defined the race instead has been candidates calling on others to drop out, invoking Trump’s name as much as possible, and making terrible free-lunch campaign promises. These things have made the race as pleasant as a root canal.
With any luck, we’ve bottomed out as an electorate, and we can expect better days four years from now. Otherwise, we shouldn’t expect anything to improve in California for a long time.
Matt Fleming is a columnist for the Southern California News Group.