When Gov. Gavin Newsom told CNN’s Jake Tapper that he would not run for president in 2028 if former Vice President Kamala Harris does, it shocked Tapper, who reacted “with incredulity” according to Politico.
Newsom has long been a top candidate in Democrats’ 2028 polls, has spent years building his national profile, and is one of only a handful of Democrats with the name recognition and donor base at this point, so why defer to someone else?
The logic, as the governor described it to Tapper, is relatively straightforward: rather than tear each other apart in the primary, Newsom would “graciously” step aside, while banking goodwill with Black and female voters – key Democratic constituencies.
It’s also an unspoken acknowledgment by Newsom of how far to the left Democrats have moved, and a keen understanding that primary voters – especially Black and far left voters – would almost certainly punish him if he appeared to block Harris.
To be sure, these factors are legitimate. He and Harris have run on parallel political tracks since their time as mayor and district attorney, respectively, of San Francisco. They draw from the same state, same donor class, and occupy the same coastal-liberal lane.
And yet, a deeper look suggests something far more calculated – what one New York Post columnist called a “masterstroke.”
Indeed, for Newsom, whose White House ambitions have been politics’ worst kept secret for years and who never misses a chance to score political points, stepping aside for Harris is not humility.
Rather, it is an extremely high stakes bet that hinges on Newsom building support with Democratic primary voters in order to take advantage of his stronger chances in a general election.
As I recently noted in these pages, Emerson polling revealed that in a hypothetical 2028 contest against either Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Newsom led both Republicans, while Harris lost to Rubio.
Thus, if at this – admittedly early – point, Newsom appears to be in a stronger position than Harris, why condition his candidacy on her decision?
First, Harris, who has only said that she is “thinking about it” is not guaranteed to run. She is 0 for two in national elections – the 2020 primary and 2024 general election.
In the former she flamed out before the first state, and while 2024 was an unprecedented situation, she lost the popular vote and all seven swing states.
However, if Harris did run, she has a considerable 10-point lead among Democratic primary voters, per RealClearPolitics. Harris could well dominate a primary only to struggle again in a general election.
Surely, Newsom believes that the best way to improve his primary position is to not appear confrontational vis-à-vis Harris. Giving her the right of first refusal may mitigate perceptions that he is attempting to bully the former vice president out of the race and could get him to a winnable general election.
Further, there are concerns over donor enthusiasm for Harris. Democratic mega-donor Reid Hoffman recently said that she would face a “very challenging path,” echoing previous reports of “dwindling” support for another Harris run among big Democratic donors, as the Los Angeles Times noted earlier this year.
It is possible that after sounding out donors and consultants, Harris decides not to enter the fray. Or she could enter only to drop out very shortly after, giving Newsom – who has the campaign infrastructure – a chance.
In either of those scenarios, Newsom’s bet will have paid off, casting him either as the adult in the room who graciously made way for Harris, or as the candidate who came back to save the party.
Second, given the state of today’s Democratic Party, Newsom understands voters’ sensitivities to the optics of a straight, white man muscling Harris out of the primary.
Put another way, with “identity politics” a dominant force among Democrats’ primary electorate, Newsom clearly felt the need to at least appear that he’s deferring to Harris, even if she is not Democrats’ best chance to win the White House in 2028.
Finally, Newsom is likely hoping that the goodwill among Black voters that he may engender by appearing magnanimous towards Harris could move the needle in his direction.
While still reliably Democratic, Black voters have slowly – yet noticeably – grown less supportive of the party in recent years.
In 2024, Harris won 86% of Black voters, per exit polls. Yet, in Emerson’s August survey, all Democrats tested – Harris, Newsom, AOC, Buttigieg, and Ossoff – failed to match that.
Harris’ high water mark (82%) came the closest, but Newsom and Ossoff were in the low 70’s, and Ocasio-Cortez was stuck in the mid- to high-60’s. Conversely in every matchup, Vance and Rubio virtually tied or considerably overperformed the 13% President Trump won in 2024.
Shoring up support among this absolutely critical demographic would be a big win for Newsom, if he can do it. In a situation where the Democratic candidate wins just 70% or 75% of Black voters, key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia would likely tilt to the GOP.
Taken together, there are legitimate reasons why Newsom feels he needs to defer to Harris.
That being said, there are also genuine risks in this strategy.
Harris may not be the most electable Democrat, and donors would not be as excited, but she still commands a considerable amount of loyalty within the party.
Building on that loyalty, she could enter the race but refuse to bow out until it’s too late for Newsom to ride to the rescue – the opposite of the early-exit scenario that vindicates his gamble by setting himself up as the savior.
Ultimately, knowing he needs to win over skeptical Democrats – particularly Black voters – in order to have a shot at a general election that he could well win, there may not have been a better strategy at this time.
Nevertheless, for Newsom, who always waits to see where the winds are blowing before taking the most politically beneficial position, this is the riskiest bet of his political career.
It could either block him from the White House – and likely take Democrats down in the process – or set him up to be the party’s savior.
Only time will tell whether his vow is a “masterstroke” or a significant mistake.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.