LAS VEGAS — Houston’s defense so suffocated the Bills last month that defensive end Will Anderson Jr., cornerback Kamari Lassiter and friends demanded my full attention.
On offense, led by quarterback CJ Stroud, all the Texans require is 20 points. They’re 8-0 when they hit that figure. That defense is the star of their show.
Anyone who witnessed the 1985 Bears knows the feeling of seeing dominant defenders absolutely control the other guys.
Those Bears allowed just two regular-season enemies to tally at least 20 first downs, shut out two playoff opponents and pummeled the Patriots 46-10 in Super Bowl XX.
The modern game’s finest defenses let few regular-season enemies register 20 first downs, including the 2000 Ravens (three) and Titans (three), the 1978 Steelers (four) and 2002 Buccaneers (three), plus the Bears of 1985 and ’86 (three).
Four of those squads won Super Bowls.
Houston had kept 11 consecutive opponents from tallying 20 first downs until Sunday, when the Cardinals collected 22. No matter. Stroud went 22-for-29 for 260 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Texans’ 40-20 triumph.
In Week 2, the Buccaneers and quarterback Baker Mayfield collected 25 first downs and defeated the Texans 20-19.
Should Houston keep the Raiders, Chargers and Colts each to 19 first downs or fewer, it will become the first NFL team in the 17-game era (since 2021) to yield 20 only twice.
The Raiders visit Sunday as the league’s three-ring circus, an absolute mess.
They were zapped 31-0 in Philadelphia on Sunday, gaining just six first downs. They collected only three (one via penalty) in another 31-0 shellacking in Kansas City two months ago.
The Raiders are hot candidates to suffer a second consecutive shutout for the first time since 1981, when they didn’t score in three successive games.
Since World War II, only the 1966 Broncos — in a 24-0 defeat in Houston, of all places, against the Oilers — have failed to register a first down in a game.
Raiders fourth-year quarterback Kenny Pickett netted just 29 passing yards in Philly. He’s in for more trouble in Houston, whose DraftKings odds to record a shutout are 10-to-1.
This Texans defense is the brainchild of former Dartmouth safety Matt Burke. In his first two seasons as coordinator, respectively, Houston was 30th and 19th in average first downs allowed.
That’s now an NFL-low 16.4.
“Everybody just being free,” Anderson told a Houston TV station, “flying around, having fun and executing the game plan.”
The Texans set franchise records last season for most sacks (49) and tackles for loss (106), and they’re on track to eclipse the former. They’re a modern-era defensive juggernaut.
Poor Raiders.
Best bet
RAIDERS at TEXANS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Texans by 14½. Total: 37½.
Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 2-12/4-9-1; Texans 9-5/8-6.
Pick: Texans 28, Raiders 3.
Play: Texans -14½.
How Miech’s plays fared
Last week Overall
Best bet 1-0 6-9
Top plays 3-0 24-21
All plays 10-5 98-119-4
7-point tease 10-5 156-63-2
Top plays
JETS at SAINTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Saints by 4½. Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jets 3-11/8-6; Saints 4-10/6-8.
Outlook: QB Tyler Shough’s three winning starts were all against NFC South foes, two against the Panthers, who’ll know whom to blame when they miss the playoffs. Only the Cowboys are circling the drain faster than the Jets.
Pick: Saints 17, Jets 3.
Play: Saints -4½.
VIKINGS at GIANTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 6-8/6-8; Giants 2-12/7-7.
Outlook: As Vikings agitators gained volume, the squad turned in its best back-to-back efforts of the season; two wins, eight total TDs and one turnover. Yardage-wise, no defense is currently playing worse than that of the Giants (410 yards per game).
Pick: Vikings 24, Giants 17.
Play: Vikings -3.
49ERS at COLTS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ABC 7, ESPN.
Line: 49ers by 6. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS):
49ers 10-4/9-5; Colts 8-6/8-5-1.
Outlook: When Colts RB Jonathan Taylor runs for at least 100 yards, the team is 5-0. QB Philip Rivers, 44, nearly pulled off a spectacular win last week. However, the 49ers and RB Christian McCaffrey are more finely tuned.
Pick: 49ers 23, Colts 10.
Play: 49ers -6.
Other plays
EAGLES at COMMANDERS
Time: 4 p.m. Saturday, Fox 32.
Line: Eagles by 6½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 9-5/8-6; Commanders 4-10/5-9.
Outlook: The Eagles have won six of their last eight games in Landover, Maryland. At home, the Commanders allow 8.1 yards per throw, the highest home figure in the NFL. The Eagles’ secondary on the road plays with more discipline.
Pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 13.
Play: Eagles -6½.
PACKERS at BEARS
Time: 7:20 p.m. Saturday, Fox 32.
Line: Bears by 1½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Packers 9-4-1/6-7-1; Bears 10-4/9-4-1.
Outlook: The Bears have averaged 187 rushing yards over their last three games. Plus, they have hauled in eight interceptions over their last five, while Packers QB Jordan Love has had three passes picked off in his last two.
Pick: Bears 24, Packers 13. Play: Bears -1½.
BILLS at BROWNS
Time: Noon Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Bills by 10. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 10-4/7-7; Browns 3-11/5-9.
Outlook: Buffalo has dropped three of four in Cleveland this century. The Bills must rectify some efficiency issues to be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender. Browns DE Myles Garrett is a sack away from the record (22½).
Pick: Bills 23, Browns 14. Play: Browns +10.
CHIEFS at TITANS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Chiefs by 3½. Total: 37½.
Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 6-8/5-9; Titans 2-12/6-8.
Outlook: Titans QB Cam Ward has been sacked only once in his last two games. In his last six, out of 195 throws, he has six touchdowns and one interception. The only road secondary worse than that of the Chiefs (7.9 yards per throw) is the Bears’ (8.0).
Pick: Titans 13, Chiefs 3. Play: Titans +3½.
BENGALS at DOLPHINS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Bengals by 5½. Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bengals 4-10/6-8; Dolphins 6-8/7-7.
Outlook: Dolphins QB Quinn Ewers getting his first start has increased this spread by four points. We’re nabbing those extra points strictly as a value play because over their last three games, these squads are in opposite points-per-play spheres.
Pick: Dolphins 24, Bengals 10.
Play: Dolphins +5½.
CHARGERS at COWBOYS
Time: Noon Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Cowboys by 2½. Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 10-4/7-6-1; Cowboys 6-7-1/7-7.
Outlook: The Dallas secondary is nearly as Swiss cheese at home as Washington’s. Chargers QB Justin Herbert throws too many picks and gets sacked too frequently, but he has won three in a row and six of his last seven games.
Pick: Chargers 28, Cowboys 23.
Play: Chargers +2½.
BUCCANEERS at PANTHERS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 7-7/5-9; Panthers 7-7/8-6.
Outlook: The Buccaneers are winless the last four times they’ve let foes run for triple-digit yardage. When the Panthers run at least 30 times, that spells victory. Fifth-year RB Rico Dowdle is about to hit 1,000 yards for a second consecutive season.
Pick: Panthers 21, Bucs 10. Play: Panthers +3.
JAGUARS at BRONCOS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 10-4/9-4-1; Broncos 12-2/6-7-1.
Outlook: The AFC South-leading Jaguars are rolling with five consecutive victories, in which they’ve averaged more than 34 points, plus W’s in six of their last seven. Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville’s stout linebacker out of Utah, will be a major disruptor.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Broncos 17.
Play: Jaguars +3.
FALCONS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Falcons by 2½. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 5-9/6-7-1; Cardinals 3-11/6-8.
Outlook: In their six-game losing streak, the Cardinals have let four foes tally at least 40 points. Their secondary is breaking down by the game, so look for Falcons QB Kirk Cousins (373 yards at the Buccaneers last week) to continue his renaissance.
Pick: Falcons 27, Cardinals 6.
Play: Falcons -2½.
STEELERS at LIONS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Lions by 7. Total: 51½.
Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 8-6/7-7; Lions 8-6/7-7.
Outlook: The previous four Lions foes have averaged 453 total yards. The AFC North leaders have won two in a row, in which QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 508 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. He’s 18-8 lifetime against Detroit.
Pick: Steelers 26, Lions 24. Play: Steelers +7.
PATRIOTS at RAVENS
Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 11-3/8-6; Ravens 7-7/5-9.
Outlook: QB Drake Maye averages 8.7 yards per throw, No. 2 in the league, which will stress a poor Ravens secondary. In three previous Maye starts without a touchdown pass, the Patriots won; last week, they lost. We expect some extra fire here.
Pick: Patriots 31, Ravens 20.
Play: Patriots +3.