NFL picks: Rams QB Matthew Stafford will continue rolling against Panthers’ flimsy pass defense

LAS VEGAS — The fortunes and futures of two NFL franchises might have been determined in February at a Montana ski resort.

Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford either ran into each other, by chance, on the slopes or Brady hosted the Rams quarterback at his winter casa.

Nothing came of it, and the NFL ruled against any tampering issues against Brady, the former ace quarterback and current Raiders minority owner, because the Rams had given Stafford and his agent permission to speak with other teams.

If Brady tried to sell Stafford on the Raiders, the recruitment failed. Today, the teams are headed in spectacularly different directions.

In April, the Raiders grabbed Geno Smith from the Seahawks — he was 27-22 as a three-year starter with Seattle — extending his deal two years, through 2027, for $86 million.

In May, the Rams added $26 million to the last two seasons of Stafford’s contract.

After Week 12, Smith and the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa lead the league with 13 interceptions. Smith’s QB rating of 29.4 is 32nd in the NFL, behind Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Cam Ward (Titans) and Justin Fields (Jets).

The Raiders (2-9) ride a five-game skid into their game Sunday at the Chargers. Vegas will play its first game without offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, whom coach Pete Carroll dismissed Sunday night.

On the late-night weekend ‘‘HeatWave’’ sports-betting show he co-hosts on Fox Sports Radio in Vegas, handicapper Tom Barton did not mince his opinions about the Raiders.

“A disaster,” Barton said. “Plus, they play in a brutally, ridiculously difficult AFC West.”

Stafford, meanwhile, owns a fifth-rated QBR (69.2) and has been the field general for a 9-2 squad that takes a six-game winning streak into its game at Carolina on Sunday.

With 25 touchdown passes and no picks in his last eight games, Stafford, 37, has been scintillating.

He awoke Monday morning as the -235 favorite (risk $235 to win $100), at Circa Sports, to win league MVP honors. The Rams are the +425 favorite to win Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, California, on Feb. 8.

(In early June, Circa had 16-to-1 title odds on the Rams and 32-1 on Stafford’s MVP chances.)

Moreover, wide receiver Davante Adams, who turns 33 on Christmas Eve, caught two touchdown passes from Stafford on Sunday in a wipeout victory in Tampa to bump his league-leading total to 12 TD receptions.

In the 1970s, Washington held the “Over the Hill Gang” distinction, but the Rams might want to buy, or borrow, that copyright.

Lately, the Panthers’ pass defense has been flimsy. For L.A., it’ll be smooth downhill sailing, as it has been since Stafford returned from those Montana slopes still a Ram.

Best bet

RAMS at PANTHERS

Time: Noon Sunday

Line: Rams by 10½ Total: 44½

Records (overall/ATS):

Rams 9-2/8-3; Panthers 6-6/7-5

Pick: Rams 27, Panthers 13

Play: Rams -10½

How Miech’s plays fared

Last week Overall

Best bet 0-1 5-7

Top plays 1-2 18-18

All plays 4-8-2 74-102-2

7-point tease 12-2 122-54-2

Top plays

JAGUARS at TITANS

Time: Noon Sunday

Line: Jaguars by 6½ Total: 42½

Records (overall/ATS):

Jaguars 7-4/5-4-2; Titans 1-10/4-7

Outlook: It just keeps rolling away from Tennessee, which is 5-17 in the AFC South since 2023. Since ’22, the Titans are 23-37-2 (.387) ATS, second-worst in the NFL to the Saints (.379). The Jags have won three of their last four.

Pick: Jaguars 28, Titans 6

Play: Jaguars -6½

FALCONS at JETS

Time: Noon Sunday

Line: Falcons by 2½ Total: 39½

Records (overall/ATS):

Falcons 4-7/5-5-1; Jets 2-9/6-5

Outlook: The Falcons have won four in a row at MetLife Stadium. Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson has averaged 86 rushing yards in his last three games. QB Kirk Cousins threw two TD passes in a win Sunday for the first time in 55 weeks.

Pick: Falcons 21, Jets 10

Play: Falcons -2½

GIANTS at PATRIOTS

Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line: Patriots by 7½

Total: 46½

Records (overall/ATS): Giants 2-10/7-5; Patriots 10-2/7-5

Outlook: The visitors have won four of their last six games against New England, two in Super Bowls. The Giants, who’ve lost six in a row but covered their last three, likely will miss QB Jaxson Dart for a third consecutive game.

Pick: Patriots 21, Giants 16

Play: Giants +7½

Other plays

BEARS at EAGLES

Time: 2 p.m. Friday, Fox 32, Prime Video

Line: Eagles by 7 Total: 44½

Records (overall/ATS): Bears 8-3/6-4-1; Eagles 8-3/7-4

Outlook: Now it gets tough for depleted Team Miracle, which has dropped its last three games in Philly by an average of 26 points. The Eagles will be smarting from giving up a 21-point lead in Dallas and losing.

Pick: Eagles 28, Bears 10

Play: Eagles -7

TEXANS at COLTS

Time: Noon Sunday, CBS 2

Line: Colts by 4½ Total: 44½

Records (overall/ATS): Texans 6-5/5-6; Colts 8-3/7-3-1

Outlook: Benefactors of having last played a Thursday game, and a very impressive one at home against the Bills, the Texans get what’s being termed “a mini-bye.” They’ve also won their last three games in Indianapolis.

Pick: Texans 20, Colts 17

Play: Texans +4½

NINERS at BROWNS

Time: Noon Sunday

Line: Niners by 5½ Total: 38½

Records (overall/ATS): Niners 8-4/7-5; Browns 3-8/5-6

Outlook: The Niners have dropped six of their last seven in Cleveland. The Browns have the league’s second-toughest home defense (0.247 PPP). Magnetic QB Shedeur Sanders (an elite 10.5 yards per throw Sunday) starts, and thrives, again.

Pick: Browns 19, Niners 13

Play: Browns +5½

SAINTS at DOLPHINS

Time: Noon Sunday

Line: Dolphins by 6 Total: 41½

Records (overall/ATS): Saints 2-9/3-8; Dolphins 4-7/6-5

Outlook: The Saints showed absolutely zero life at home Sunday in an ugly defeat to the Falcons. In fact, that’s less than zero, as the significant New Orleans PPP margins are all negative. Miami’s heartbeat is getting stronger.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Saints 6

Play: Dolphins -6

CARDINALS at BUCCANEERS

Time: Noon Sunday

Line: Bucs by 3 Total: 44½

Records (overall/ATS): Cards 3-8/5-5-1; Bucs 6-5/5-6

Outlook: Even if Bucs QB Baker Mayfield (left shoulder) returns, he’s a hard hit away from a return trip to the blue medical tent. RB Bucky Irving is expected to return for the Bucs, though, and his running and receiving will be the difference.

Pick: Buccaneers 17, Cardinals 10

Play: Buccaneers -3

VIKINGS at SEAHAWKS

Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday, Fox 32

Line: Seahawks by 10½ Total: 41½

Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 4-7/4-7; Seahawks 8-3/8-3

Outlook: In its last six games, Seattle’s lone blemish was at the Rams, which was only for NFL supremacy. The Seahawks will be hurting if they give up at least 30 points, but only the Bucs have achieved that goal this season.

Pick: Seahawks 23, Vikings 21

Play: Vikings +10½

BILLS at STEELERS

Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2

Line: Bills by 3½ Total: 47½

Records (overall/ATS): Bills 7-4/5-6; Steelers 6-5/5-5-1

Outlook: Including playoffs, the Bills are 3-6 in their last nine road trips. In recent weeks, however, their pass defense has been improving, while the Steelers’ secondary is headed the other way.

Pick: Bills 26, Steelers 21

Play: Bills -3½

RAIDERS at CHARGERS

Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday

Line: Chargers by 10 Total: 41½

Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 2-9/3-7-1; Chargers 7-4/4-6-1

Outlook: Riding a five-game losing streak, the Raiders are fast approaching another double-digit-loss season, with only one winning season in their last 10. My Raiders under 6½ season-wins ticket looks golden.

Pick: Chargers 27, Raiders 10

Play: Chargers -10

BRONCOS at COMMANDERS

Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5

Line: Broncos by 6½ Total: 43½

Records (overall/ATS):

Broncos 9-2/5-5-1; Commanders 3-8/3-8

Outlook: Denver takes an eight-game winning streak into Landover, Maryland, on a potential Super Bowl collision course with the Rams. In his last five games, Broncos QB Bo Nix has passed for nine TDs and run two in.

Pick: Broncos 24, Commanders 10

Play: Broncos -6½

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