Numbers make Bears look like paper tiger, but eye test tells different story

Bears fans are tired of hearing about how the Bears haven’t beaten anyone this season. But the flaw in their counter-argument — that the Bears don’t control their schedule — is that the one time the team played a legitimate Super Bowl contender, they were waxed by the Lions 52-21 in Week 2.

The Bears objectively have had a primrose path to their 8-3 record. Their last five victories have come against quarterbacks Mason Rudolph, J.J. McCarthy, Jaxson Dart, Joe Flacco and Spencer Rattler. And they’ve consistently beaten teams in the midst of a rut — the Cowboys (3-5-1), Raiders (2-9), Commanders (0-6), Saints (1-8), Bengals (1-8), Giants (0-6), Vikings (1-5) and even the then-AFC-North-leading Steelers (2-4).

The one time the Bears played a team that was heading north, they lost to the Ravens 30-16 at M&T Bank Stadium, with Tyler Huntley playing for Lamar Jackson. Fun Fact: The eight teams that have lost to the Bears are a combined 8-22-1 since playing them.

But wait, there’s more. The Bears have the 31st-ranked strength of schedule in the NFL (.369, 46-79-1). Their strength of victory (.324, 29-61-1) is last among teams with winning records. Every team they’ve beaten this season ranks 18th or lower in the latest ESPN power rankings. Five of them are in the bottom 10. The Steelers (6-5) are the only team the Bears have beaten that is in a playoff spot.

The numbers make the Bears look like a paper tiger. But the eye test tells a different story. They are undoubtedly making progress. The Bears haven’t gotten to 8-3 by maxing out against these weaker teams, but with room for growth. Between Ben Johnson’s play-calling and Caleb Williams’ special-play ability, the Bears’ offense has two strengths that are universal.

That sets the stage for the most intriguing game of this rejuvenating season, against the Eagles on Friday at Lincoln Financial Field. For the first time since Week 2, the Bears have a chance to beat somebody. And they’re 11 weeks better than they were in Week 2.

The Bears’ arrow under Johnson is almost certain to be pointing up heading into 2026, but this is the Bears’ best chance for a statement game that confirms they’re on a path toward contention and not just improvement. The Eagles have their own flaws, but they’re a team that has played in the Super Bowl in two of the previous three postseasons. They know how to meet the moment. They know how to win. After the Chiefs, they’re the current standard of excellence up-and-coming teams like the Bears have to match.

“This is a team that was just in the Super Bowl, so they have a winning culture. We know that,” Bears safety Kevin Byard said. “We know they’re going to be a 60-minute team, as well, so there’s [not] going to be [any] panic on us. But we just know that ever single play, you never know what play can be the deciding factor of this game. This is a heavyweight match for sure.”

On a short week, on the road, against a defending Super Bowl champion coming off a loss to a rival, the Bears face the challenge of raising their game to the Eagles’ level. It’s as close to a defining moment as the Bears have had this season.

When the Bears have the ball

Unpredictability is a key to Ben Johnson’s success, but however he attacks the Eagles’ defense, the Bears’ path to an upset against the defending Super Bowl champions on a short week on the road and with a short-handed defense seems clear: control the clock, shorten the game and limit possessions for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense.

In the Eagles’ three losses, the Broncos (34:17) and Giants (30:59) won the time-of-possession battle, and the Cowboys had a 25:02-16:30 edge in outscoring the Eagles 24-0 after falling behind 21-0 in the second quarter last week at AT&T Stadium.

The Bears’ offensive line will be a big factor. The Bears are second in the NFL in rushing (142.3 yards per game) but were limited to 99 yards against the Steelers last week, when injuries to Theo Benedet and Jonah Jackson ended a six-game run of continuity (418 of 419 snaps) for the starting combination.

The Bears should be able to move the ball against an Eagles defense that ranks 20th in yards allowed (340.1). Scoring is the bigger challenge. The Eagles are eighth in points allowed (20.5) and third in red-zone touchdowns (48.5%).

Caleb Williams will be challenged, but it’s one he can handle. Quarterbacks have a league-low 57.3% completion rate against the Eagles. But Williams is 7-0 when he completes less than 60% of his passes this season.

When the Eagles have the ball

An intriguing battle ensues between an Eagles offense that has taken a step back in 2025 (17th in scoring after finishing seventh last season) and a Bears defense that is capable at full strength but has yet to be at full strength all season.

The Bears again will be short-handed, with linebackers Tremaine Edmunds (groin, injured reserve) and T.J. Edwards (hand/hamstring) and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (hip) out. But cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson (out since Week 2) and Kyler Gordon (out since Week 8) could return.

The Eagles’ offense runs hot and cold but can break out at any time in any game with Hurts, who has a knack for making plays. The Eagles rank 24th in yards (303.6) and 17th in points (20.5).

The Bears’ defense ranks 27th in yards (362.8) and points (26.5) but has been consistently opportunistic, which sets up a critical battle: The Bears lead the NFL in takeaways with 24; the Eagles lead in fewest giveaways with six.

Hurts, in fact, has thrown just one interception this season (he has 17 touchdown passes and a 106.0 passer rating). The Bears lead the NFL with 16 interceptions.

The Eagles’ inconsistency was never more evident than last week, when they scored 21 points in the first 19 minutes against the Cowboys, before Matt Eberflus’ defense shut them out in the final 41 minutes, holding the Eagles to 134 yards on 25 plays (5.4 average).

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