Illinois residents may not have to pay out as much at the grocery store before Thanksgiving, according to a new report from the Illinois Farm Bureau.
The national average price for a 16-pound frozen turkey dropped 16.3% from last year to $21.50, or $1.34 per pound. In Illinois, the average price for the same turkey is $18.03, the farm bureau said this week.
The American Farm Bureau Federation, which also released its annual cost of Thanksgiving dinner report this week, predicted in October higher prices for wholesale turkeys — what retailers pay — because farms were battling diseases such as the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, which impacted inventory.
But lower consumer demand for turkey, paired with less farms affected by diseases such as bird flu, may have fueled the lower prices.
“A lot of grocers and retailers have the opportunity to put specials and reduce the price of that retail product in order to help drive people into their store,” said Tasha Bunting, director of commodity programs and food systems at the Illinois Farm Bureau. “Retailers use items, in this case the turkey, as a loss leader to drive shoppers into their stores, where they fill their baskets with other items that will have a higher return to the retail market.”
Cold storage also plays a factor, Bunting said.
“There are a lot of frozen turkeys that have been able to kind of move through the system. That’s helped to keep those prices down,” she said.
Shoppers may have the best luck on a deal at larger grocers, who have more negotiating power because they’re buying in bulk.
“Larger retailers can take advantage of the opportunity to get larger quantities and be able to really make those price points something that families can take advantage of,” Bunting said.
Turkeys are typically the priciest part of a Thanksgiving dinner but because it’s cheaper this year, the Illinois Farm Bureau said it helped drive down the overall cost of the holiday meal.
It said volunteer shoppers participating in the national farm bureau survey found a statewide average price of $49.20 for a 10-person meal. The shopping list included turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray and pumpkin pie with whipped cream.
Nationally, the average price for a Thanksgiving meal was $55.18, a 5% decline from 2024. While the average cost has fallen since 2023, the American Farm Bureau said it doesn’t “fully erase dramatic increases that led to a record-high cost of $64.05 in 2022.”
“It’s encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” Faith Parum, an American Farm Bureau Federation economist, said in a news release. “Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen. The combination will help ensure turkey will remain an affordable option for families celebrating Thanksgiving.”
The lower retail price for a turkey may be a warm welcome to Chicago shoppers, who have seen consistently higher grocery prices over the last year.
However, some side dishes may cost more than in previous years, according to American Farm Bureau. Sweet potatoes rose by 37% and veggie trays jumped 61%. Hurricane damage likely contributed to the cost of sweet potatoes, the organization said, and vegetable prices tend to be “highly volatile,” and impacted by factors like supply chain disruptions and labor shortages.
“It is refreshing to see that overall, the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 has continued to trend downward, which is definitely not making up for the huge spikes we saw a few years ago but getting back to a more reasonable level for consumers and those of us that are trying to stretch every penny that we have,” Bunting said.
Here’s the individual prices of a Thanksgiving meal, according to the American Farm Bureau.
- 16-pound turkey: $21.50, or $1.34 per pound (down 16.3% from 2024)
- 14-ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $3.71 (down 9%)
- Two frozen pie crusts: $3.37 (down 0.8%)
- Half pint of whipping cream: $1.87 (up 3.2%)
- One pound of frozen peas: $2.03 (up 17.2%)
- A dozen dinner rolls: $3.56 (down 14.6%)
- Miscellaneous ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.61 (down 4.7%)
- 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.16 (up 0.1%)
- One gallon of whole milk: $3.73 (up 16.3%)
- Three pounds of sweet potatoes: $4.00 (up 37%)
- One-pound veggie tray of carrots and celery: $1.36 (up 61.3%)
- 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.28 (down 2.8%)