LAS VEGAS — Kiev O’Neil approaches sports betting surgically, like a cold, calculating assassin. Emotionless. So Bears fans might want to stop reading.
That he is a lifetime Bears fan might be the curveball of this equation because he is lying in wait to let the public inflate this very public franchise.
At the proper moment, he’ll strike, betting under a win total that he hopes climbs above 9½.
O’Neil operates The Odds Breakers out of Arizona. Every mid-April, he releases custom NFL Pythagorean win figures, comparing them to how many games each team won and using them to polish predictive analyses.
Rookie coach Ben Johnson and the Bears went 11-6 last season, winning the NFC North and beating the Packers in the playoffs. A divisional-round overtime home loss to the Rams served as the season-ending stinger.
The Bears had a preseason 8½ win total, pleasing all over bettors.
Last month, Las Vegas sportsbooks opened the Bears’ 2026 win total at 9½. William Hill posted under 9½ at -115. On Monday, Circa Sports had over 9½ at +100, under -120, or risk $120 to win $100.
BetMGM, which O’Neil can’t access in Arizona, offers adjusted win totals, -210 for Bears under 10½; -125 under 9½.
“I wait [to bet] the public teams,” O’Neil said. “Wait or don’t take at all.”
He can refer to the Bears as just another public team because his “Pythag” for them is 8.04, a -2.96 discrepancy to what occurred (11 wins) that’s the largest letdown of the 32 teams.
“I want 10 as my number,” O’Neil said. “I think their most likely outcome is nine wins, but there’s a chance they get to 10. My ‘Pythag’ says to go under, so that’s what I’m looking for.”
If an amped public boosts the Bears to 10½?
“If it gets to 10½, I’ll lay -200,” he said. “I’m in.”
K.C. fortunes fizzle
A year ago, O’Neil’s “Pythag” numbers steered him toward an under wager on the Chiefs’ 11½ win total. He bet on a regression to the mean that finally occurred for the team that had experienced great fortune since 2019.
Two seasons ago, Kansas City went 15-1 before a 38-0 thrashing at Denver.
One year ago, O’Neil concocted a “Pythag” figure of 9.80 for the Chiefs.
“Last year, Kansas City was literally the biggest discrepancy [of -5.2] I’d ever seen, from true actual wins to a ‘Pythag’ win total,” he said. “And they tanked that last game. They could have had 16 wins!”
To turn that huge 5.2 discrepancy into a mammoth 6.2.
“Massive regression coming,” O’Neil told me one year ago, “with an aging team.”
The Chiefs went 6-11 last season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a season-ending knee injury, went 6-8 as a starter, dropping five of his last six games.
“That became my best under bet,’’ O’Neil said. ‘‘Among other things, the AFC West was getting stronger, better coaches were getting hired in that division, all making it a sure bet to the under.
“Whether it hits or not, the percentage of hitting it [was] higher than many others.”
The Chiefs’ win total this season is 10½, under -130, which I have already bet. That old team has only aged, and O’Neil established a 9.57 “Pythag” for Kansas City, confirming my decision.
Likes being right
O’Neil was raised in Downers Grove and went to Wisconsin in Madison. Those details were pertinent in the second week of January, when family and 30 close friends celebrated his 50th birthday in Puerto Vallarta.
On that certain Saturday night, the Bears once again trailed the Packers for three quarters before rallying in the fourth for the playoff triumph.
“There were about 20 Packers fans there,” he said. “A miserable first three quarters. The end? Pure joy. The biggest birthday present I could have gotten.”
As a fan.
As a gambler, he’s ruthless.
“You cannot expect the Bears to keep doing this unless [they] massively improve. This was clearly the luckiest team.”
The Bears’ plus-22 turnover differential led the NFL.
With those fourth-quarter cardiac comebacks in mind, O’Neil suggested it might be wise, at least for the first few games this year, to make first-half wagers against the Bears.
Fans could still bet on them for the game or wait till they trail to make moneyline bets that they’ll wake up, rally and win.
Those who did so in those two Packers games could have fetched about 10-to-1 odds in both cases.
O’Neil has discussed wagering with people who cannot bet against their team:
“I tell them, ‘You should bet on your team or against your team because that’s usually the team you know best.’ You have to completely separate the fact that you like them.
“Emotions never should be involved in sports betting. Otherwise, it’s just not for you, anyway.”
His “Pythags” have directed him to bet Giants over 7½ (+105) and Titans under 6½ (+115).
Six years ago, the company that produced “Pythags” went under. That spurred O’Neil to produce his own figures with advanced (or truer) exponents.
He recommends using these to complement approaches, such as gauging a fourth-place team now playing a first-place schedule, the draft, trades and coaching changes.
Visit his site to marvel at the mathematical details.
“It isn’t always just about the money you win; it’s about the glorification of just being right,” he said. “I like being right.”