The huge to-do list waiting for Andy Burnham in Downing Street

We’re still hurtling at breakneck speed through the Burnham ascendancy, with less than two weeks to go until the day he’s almost certain to walk through the door of No 10.

The only thing stopping him becoming the country’s top banana on July 20 is a leadership contest, which would require another Labour MP bagging enough signatures today. That’s looking unlikely.

So, with such a short timeframe ahead of us, we can safely say Sir Keir Starmer is going to be leaving loose ends when he rides off into the sunset later this month.

Many, many loose ends.

We’ve got the funding for the Defence Investment Plan; the under-16s social media ban; the European Union reset; the ongoing cost of living crisis; the expected hike in energy bills from the Iran War; and reforming the social care system.

Then there’s the Timms Review of Personal Independence Payments, which is expected to publish its interim report soon. And the government’s response to the Milburn Review on young people not in education, employment or training, with the second part due later this year.

There’s the passing of the Hillsborough Law, which is close to Burnham’s heart. The UK is hosting the G20 next year, which will take plenty of prep.

Starmer’s much-hyped digital ID system hasn’t yet been fully rolled out, nor the controversial proposals to limit trial by jury which came up at Deputy PMQs today.

His successor will also need to see through complex reforms to the special educational needs (Send) system.

Oh, and there’s the economy more generally – yesterday, the Office for Budget Responsibility said that almost all of their forecast scenarios show the public finances will end up on an unsustainable path.

Remind me, how long has Andy Burnham had to prepare to become Prime Minister?

It’s been 20 days since he won the Makerfield by-election, which was the moment he could move fully from campaign mode to planning-for-government mode.

And once again, there are about 11 days to go until he’s set to become PM.

To put that in context, his total prep time is about two-thirds of the length of the 2024 general election campaign. And two-thirds of Liz Truss’s famously truncated time in office.  

In other words, if you put a block of cheddar in the fridge when Andy Burnham became an MP, it’ll probably still be safe to eat when he becomes PM.

Is this really such a big deal?

There’s the argument that Burnham is intricately familiar with the inner workings of Westminster and the Cabinet from his previous spell as an MP – but as he has admitted himself, it’s a very different place to the one he left in 2017.

He also has plenty of advisors who have helped him develop policies for a while, but we still don’t know much about the details.

Let’s take just one big example from the list above: defence.

The Defence Investment Plan is important, of course, but it’s largely a case of working out which bits of government can and should face cuts to pay for keeping the country safe.

More broadly, Burnham will face the possibility of getting a call like Starmer did in February, telling him an ally has launched a war and asking if he is willing to get involved.

For anyone unfamiliar with local government structures, defence is not a devolved issue. Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham did not serve as commander-in-chief of a fearsome army of Mancs.

As leader of the opposition, Sir Keir Starmer will have received classified national security briefings for years before he obtained power – that doesn’t happen for local mayors. Burnham will instead be relying on meetings with top brass during this transition.

With Nato warning Russia could launch a war by 2030, we’d better hope the MP for Makerfield is jotting down notes.

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