In a July 14 meeting in the Oval Office with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, President Trump announced he was sending more missiles to the Ukrainian military. And he said, if Russia doesn’t end the war within 50 days, he would impose “secondary sanctions” of 100% on countries that trade with Russia.
Neither action will have any effect on the Russian military juggernaut that already has won the war. But the actions take him even further from his promise during his campaign, still absurdly reiterated by him, that he’s a peace president. He also keeps saying it’s “Joe Biden’s War,” even though the tranche of weapons Biden got Congress to approve last year has run out, and the new weapons shipments confirm this now is Trump’s Ukraine War.
Despite being president now for six months, he has not articulated any strategy for victory by Ukraine, or even just a cease fire. He only has ordered President Putin to stop fighting, even as the Russian Army is rolling westward and Trump has not taken into consideration even one of Putin’s demands, which were advanced on June 14, 2024, seven months before Trump took office.
The main demands: Ukraine doesn’t join NATO. The Kiev regime must be changed through elections. Ukraine remains neutral, non-nuclear and with only a small military. The bans on the Russian language and Russian Orthodox Church must be lifted. The U.S. and the EU must lift sanctions on Russia and recognize its control of the four Russian-culture oblasts in East Ukraine.
For those objecting to those demands, including Trump, here’s the question: What is your plan for victory over Russia, or arranging a peace, or even a cease fire?
As to the weapons, they reportedly will include Tomahawk offensive missiles and Patriot air-defense batteries. Trump said Europe will send the missiles from its current stock, then buy replacements from the U.S. inventory. Reported Reuters, Kurt Volker, a former U.S. Ambassador to Nato, “said Ukraine could ultimately receive 12 to 13 Patriot batteries but it could take a year for them all to be delivered.”
Yet a typical day was July 9, when UPI reported, “Russia launched its largest aerial assault of the war, firing 741 drones and missiles against targets all across the country, including Kyiv and provinces in the far west.” The numerical disadvantage is obvious. The Guardian also reported Patriot stockpiles now are down to 25% of those the Pentagon says it needs.
“This is again European nations standing up,” Rutte said with Trump. But by July 17, Italy and France said they weren’t joining the deal. Main contributors will be the UK and Canada, and smaller nations the Netherlands, Finland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway.
Already, 17 rounds of sanctions have been imposed on Russia, barely affecting its economy. If Putin doesn’t surrender by Sept. 2, Trump supposedly will impose the 100% secondary sanctions, meaning they would not hit Russia directly, but be imposed on countries that continue to trade with Moscow.
The main country affected would be Russia’s close ally China. But earlier this year, a series of tariffs raised the tariff on China to 145% on some goods. China retaliated with 34% tariffs on U.S. goods and suspended export licenses for rare-earth minerals and magnets, which are needed in manufacturing and, especially, in producing advanced weapons.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies summarized what came next: “On May 11, U.S. and Chinese officials met in Switzerland and reached a 90-day tariff truce, which included removing U.S. companies from China’s trade blacklist – allowing them renewed access to rare earth supplies.” Obviously, if Trump imposed 100% sanctions, China again would withhold the rare earth minerals.
Trump hates to lose – on anything. But his minuscule resupply plan only will get more Ukrainians and Russians killed for nothing.
“I never get too attached to one deal or one approach,” he wrote in “The Art of the Deal.” He did this time, even doubling down on the failed approach by the predecessor he still attacks. Tens of thousands more will die for nothing.
John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board