The 2025 Lotte Championship tees off at the lush Hoakalei Country Club in Ewa Beach, Oʻahu–a picturesque but tricky test of golf on the LPGA Tour. With 120 elite players in the field, this event is shaping up to be a compelling battleground for those hunting momentum and either a first win of the season or a confidence boost heading into year’s end.
Weather, course setup, and drawing conditions in Hawaii often conspire to reward precision and mental toughness more than sheer power. Wind off the Pacific, tricky greens, and penal roughs can expose even top-tier players. That makes this week not just a test of form, but of adaptability and resilience.
Odds & Market Movers: Who the Bookies Favor
According to the latest odds, Nelly Korda leads the futures board at +1000 (10-1) as the betting favorite. Despite not having collected a win yet this season, Korda’s metrics–greens in regulation, strokes gained, consistency–suggest she’s dangerous. The narrative is: she’s overdue.
Close behind are Miyu Yamashita and Rio Takeda, each at +1100. They bring local course knowledge (for Yamashita more regionally) or momentum that bettors believe can translate. Charley Hull (12-1) also draws attention–her recent win in Cincinnati gives her confidence going in.
Further down the board, names like Nasa Hataoka (+1400) and Chisato Iwai (+1600) deserve respect; each has shown flashes of brilliance and has upside if the schedule suits them. As always, longer odds names (20-1, 30-1, etc.) may lurk as value plays, especially for bettors chasing upside rather than shallow favorites.
Betting Picks & Strategies
Primary Picks
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Brooke Henderson: She has history here (a past champion) and just won in Canada. These qualities make her a logical “live” pick — someone you can back with confidence.
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Leona Maguire: While her form may not always scream “win,” she handles tougher conditions well and often stays in contention. Useful as a value hedge or place bet.
Dark Horses & Watch-List Plays
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Andrea Lee: Strong recent stretch — four consecutive top-20s suggests form is solid.
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Mid-late odds players: Don’t ignore those in the +2500 to +5000 range — in fields of 120, variance takes hold. A week can change everything.
Betting Approach Tips
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Diversify your approach: Take a favorite or two for outright, plus one or two value plays as longer shots.
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Focus on combos: Plays like top-10, place bets, or even head-to-head matchups might yield better risk/reward than pure outrights.
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Watch the conditions: If wind forecasts are aggressive, lean toward players who excel in tougher weather (wind control, course management).
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Manage bankroll: Avoid overcommitting to one single bet — in golf, upsets happen.
Who Lifts the Trophy?
Given form, course fit, and betting sentiment, the top contenders are:
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Nelly Korda: She has the resume, the metrics, and now the favorite’s backing. If she locks in, she’s the one to beat.
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Brooke Henderson: Strong alternate pick. She’s shown she can win under pressure, and she knows what it takes.
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Miyu Yamashita or Rio Takeda: If they click, either could upset — both have upside and perhaps course affinity.
If I were placing a bet, my lean is Korda for the outright, with Henderson as a high-upside backup, and sprinkling a small play on Andrea Lee or Leona Maguire for value.
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