Caitlin Clark currently has the fourth-best odds (+1200) to win the 2024 WNBA MVP award, according to Yahoo.
If Clark managed to win league MVP as a rookie, she would become the second player to do so in WNBA history. The first was the recently-retired legend Candace Parker, who did so with the Los Angeles Sparks in 2008.
Therefore, it isn’t unprecedented for a rookie to be the WNBA’s best player. And Clark has shown plenty of times that she’s talented enough to make it happen; especially after already having proven that she won’t struggle to score in the WNBA.
Yet, the Iowa legend will need some of the following five scenarios to occur if she’s to become league MVP by season’s end.
Here are the five ways that Clark can win the 2024 WNBA MVP:
1. She Breaks The Three-Point Record
In 2023, New York Liberty star Sabrina Ionescu set the WNBA record for most three-pointers made in a season, with 128.
Clark drained 201 three’s in her final college season, and made five during her WNBA debut on May 3. If she was to average five three-pointers made per game during the 2024 regular season, she’d break Ionescu’s record by 72.
If Clark stays healthy, it’s not only possible, but likely, that she’ll set a new three-point record this season.
And getting that record would not only help her MVP hopes, but it would also mean that she’s scoring a lot of points.
2. Injuries (But Not On Clark)
Injuries are inevitable in sports. In 2023, The Next Hoops tallied 175 injuries during the WNBA season.
As much as we hope it doesn’t happen, if either of the two most likely MVP candidates (A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart) were to get injured, that increase Clark’s chances to win MVP.
Of course, Clark also needs to stay healthy if she has any chance of securing the MVP award. But she never missed a college game due to injury, so that bodes well for her.
3. The Indiana Fever Have A Cinderella Season
The Los Angeles Sparks finished the 2007 WNBA season with a league-worst 10-24 record. Then they drafted Candace Parker with the 2008 WNBA draft’s No. 1 overall pick.
In 2008, the Sparks finished the regular season with a 20-14 record and advanced to the Western Conference finals.
The Indiana Fever (who went 13-27 in 2023) would need a similar turnaround this year, if Clark has any chance at winning league MVP.
And with the combination of Clark and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston, we wouldn’t put it past them.
4. Clark Must Foul Less And Get Fouled More
Clark sat out much of the third quarter of Indiana’s May 3 preseason game because she was in foul trouble. This is a common theme for many WNBA (and NBA) rookies.
Similar to why she’ll need to avoid injuries, Clark must stay on the court if she’s to win MVP this season.
It would also help if she frequented the foul line. Clark was third in the NCAA in free throws attempted last season, and second in free throws made.
This trend will have to continue if she has any hope of winning MVP.
5. The WNBA Adds a Four-Point Line
Okay, there’s about a 0% chance that the WNBA will institute a four-point line during the 2024 WNBA season.
But they use one at the All-Star Game, and it would certainly add excitement if they added one!
And no WNBA player would benefit more from a four-point line than Caitlin Clark.
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