As the Longhorns prepare to face Oklahoma in the famed Red River Rivalry, fans on both sides are comparing Arch Manning’s performance to John Mateer’s, including how their performances are reflected in their NIL valuations.
Mateer is currently listed as “probable” for playing in Saturday’s game after an injury required him to have surgery on his throwing hand.
Arch Manning Is Still Leading with His NIL Valuation, But It’s Dropping
Although Manning’s NIL valuation has dipped, according to On3’s estimates, he’s still in the number one slot with a valuation of $5 million. And quarterback Carson Beck is still second, but rapidly closing in with $4.9 million.
Manning’s valuation has dropped significantly since the season began, after the Longhorns’ performance didn’t live up to the pre-season hype. In the last 10 weeks alone, Manning’s valuation has dropped about $563,000, according to On3. And back in June, Fox Sports reported that his valuation was an astounding $6.8 million.
His last NIL deal was August 27 with Warby Parker.
Mateer Is in the Top 10 & His NIL Valuation Is Growing
Mateer is still significantly lower on the list, ranking at number eight with a valuation of $3.2 million. It’s certainly arguable that Mateer might deserve a higher valuation than this. However, it’s gone up quite a bit overall since the season began. A Fox Sports report back in June estimated his valuation at $2.7 million.
It’s worth noting that an athlete’s NIL valuation doesn’t necessarily relate directly to their athletic performance. Sometimes it’s more about name recognition. Shedeur Sanders, for example, was reportedly worth $6.5 million even though he didn’t win a Heisman trophy or a championship.
Mateer’s last new NIL deal was August 19 with Beats by Dre.
John Mateer Was Injured During the September 20 Game
Mateer is listed as probable for Saturday’s game after his throwing hand was injured on September 20. (You can watch a video of the moment the injury happened here.)
The injury happened during the first quarter of Oklahoma’s game against the Auburn Tigers. Despite the injury, Mateer kept playing for the rest of the game. OU went on to win 24 to 17.
Eddie Radosevich, a correspondent for On3, wrote about the game: “It’s incredible John Mateer finished the Auburn game completing 15 of his last 16 passes, including 11 in a row to end the game with a broken thumb.”
It was originally estimated that it would take a month for Mateer to recover from his injury.
“After consulting with medical experts, it became clear that surgery is the best option for John and his short- and long-term future,” head coach Brent Venables said in a statement at the time. “He’s extremely disappointed he will miss some game action but is eager to correct the issue and move forward. As he is with everything, we know he will be aggressive with his rehabilitation and work to return to the field as quickly as possible.”
Mateer missed the game against Kent State on October 4, but he’s now probable, despite early predictions that he wouldn’t heal from his surgery in time.
If he can’t play, Michael Hawkins Jr. will start against the Longhorns.
The Red River Rivalry game begins at 2:30 p.m. Central on October 11, 2025.
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