The Toronto Blue Jays are back in the American League Championship Series—and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the reason they look like a team of destiny. MLB.com broke down the numbers behind Guerrero’s torrid start to October, and the data paints a clear picture: this isn’t a lucky hot streak. This is elite hitting, refined mechanics, and postseason maturity converging at exactly the right time.
The Bat Speed That’s Changing Everything
Guerrero’s ALDS against the New York Yankees was the definition of dominance. The Blue Jays slugger went deep in his first at-bat of the series at Rogers Centre and didn’t stop there, homering in three straight games while slashing .529/.550/1.059 with nine RBIs in four games. Toronto outscored New York 34–15, and Guerrero was at the center of every offensive explosion.
MLB.com revealed that his postseason breakout starts with an uptick in bat speed. During the regular season, Guerrero’s average bat speed was already elite at 76.7 mph. In the ALDS, it climbed to 78.6 mph—well above the league’s postseason average of 71.9 mph. His “fast swing rate,” meaning swings exceeding 75 mph, jumped from 67.7% in the regular season to a staggering 86.2% in October, leading all postseason hitters by double digits.
That increase is more than a stat line—it’s a game-changer. Across MLB, hitters batting on fast swings posted a .313 average and .631 slugging percentage in 2025. Guerrero took that trend to the extreme: eight of his nine hits and all three home runs came on those explosive swings. When his bat speed ticks up, the ball leaves in a hurry.
A Smarter, Stronger Guerrero
What’s truly remarkable about Guerrero’s hot streak is that he’s swinging harder and making more contact. His whiff rate has dropped from 21.5% during the season to just 13.3% in the postseason, an elite figure that ranks him alongside the best contact hitters in the league. He struck out only once in four games against the Yankees—proof that this is controlled aggression, not reckless power.
Then there’s the launch angle. For years, Guerrero’s power numbers have fluctuated because of ground balls. This October, he’s flipping that script. According to MLB.com, 70.6% of his batted balls in the postseason have been in the air, up from 52.9% in the regular season. Twelve of his 17 postseason batted balls were line drives or fly balls, and he’s slugging nearly 1.000 on them. When Vlad Jr. lifts the ball, there’s almost nothing pitchers can do.
He’s also punishing fastballs like it’s 2021 all over again. Seven of his nine ALDS hits came off heaters, including a grand slam against Yankees reliever Will Warren. He even added two homers off changeups—a pitch that gave him trouble during the regular season. That newfound balance at the plate makes him unpredictable and nearly impossible to exploit.
The Seattle Mariners now have the unenviable task of trying to contain Guerrero in the ALCS. Seattle’s staff throws fastballs at one of the highest rates in baseball—and MLB.com warns that could be a dangerous approach.
Guerrero has rediscovered the mix of speed, discipline, and lift that once made him the face of Toronto’s future. Now, he’s the heartbeat of a Blue Jays team chasing its first World Series berth in over three decades.
If October continues at this pace, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won’t just be the story of the Blue Jays’ postseason—he’ll be the reason it keeps going.
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