Expectations are high for Caitlin Clark’s rookie season with the Indiana Fever.
After the NCAA’s all-time leading scorer was drafted with the 2024 WNBA Draft’s No. 1 overall pick, the basketball world believes Clark will be a WNBA superstar straightaway.
And her rookie stat projections reinforce that belief.
We are projecting that Caitlin Clark will average 20.5 points, 4.8 assists, and 4.9 rebounds per game, while shooting 38.5% from three-point range in her rookie season.
These stats would not only win her WNBA Rookie of the Year, but would likely earn her All-WNBA honors, as well.
Here’s how we arrived at those projections:
Kelsey Plum and Sabrina Ionescu are two WNBA players that Clark can be compared with.
Plum because Clark broke her NCAA Division I record for career scoring in women’s basketball last season, and Ionescu because she’s the only woman with more NCAA triple-doubles than Clark. Both Plum and Ionescu are guards, and both were the No. 1 overall pick in their respective drafts.
Although Plum struggled early on in her WNBA career. She averaged no more than 9.5 points per game in her first three seasons.
Ionescu, on the other hand, injured her ankle three games into her WNBA career, and missed the rest of her rookie season as a result. But she was averaging 18.3 points per game prior to that injury.
Yet, Clark’s scoring ability is currently more developed and well-rounded than both Plum and Ionescu’s was when entering the WNBA. We certainly don’t expect her to struggle like Plum did as a rookie.
For context, if Clark had scored 20.5 points per game last WNBA season, that would have been sixth-most in the league.
Clark playing alongside Aliyah Boston will earn her plenty of assist opportunities. And 4.8 assists per game last season would have been tied for ninth-best in the WNBA.
Ionescu earned 4.7 rebounds per game as a rookie, which is a fair comparison for Clark. And offensive struggles aside, Plum shot 36.5% from three-point range as a rookie. We expect Clark to surpass that by 2%.
Will Clark be an Immediate WNBA Star?
An April 15 article from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton makes a case for (and against) Clark’s rookie season stardom.
“With her long-range shooting, Clark should be capable of moving off the ball from day one, especially when she plays alongside incumbent Indiana point guard Erica Wheeler,” Pelton writes. “Those situations could generate more efficient offense than Clark isolating or running pick-and-roll against bigger, more athletic defenders than she faced in college.”
Pelton also notes that most WNBA rookies who make an immediate impact are either forwards or centers.
“At the same time, Clark was so good in college that betting against her as a pro feels foolish,” Pelton said.
He ultimately predicts that Clark could make the All-WNBA second team as a rookie.
Pelton doesn’t mention her chances to win WNBA Rookie of the Year.
Clark is a Heavy Rookie of the Year Favorite
An April 18 Fox News article listed the current 2024 WNBA Rookie of the Year odds.
The Iowa superstar is a whopping -700 to win the award.
The rookie with the second best odds to win ROTY is Cameron Brink, who is +1500.
Chicago Sky rookies Kamilla Cardoso is +2000, and Angel Reese is +3500.
If Clark matches our projected stats, the Rookie of the Year award will be hers for the taking.
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