College football is the gift that keeps on giving. One week after we watched the UCLA Bruins storm the field after upsetting the Penn State Nittany Lions to secure their first win on the season, we are going to get to watch the number one team in the country lose on the road as two touchdown favorites.
Am I getting ahead of myself? Perhaps. But after hitting on UCLA’s moneyline last week, and garnishing it with the Florida Gators moneyline over the Texas Longhorns, maybe my heads getting a little big.
I’m calling my shot once again, the Illinois Fighting Illini are going to shock the world Saturday morning when they knock off the number one team in the nation, the Ohio State Buckeyes.
#17 Illinois Over #1 Ohio State (+490 FD)
The fighting Illini are getting a horrible number thanks to their effort against the now 7th ranked Indiana Hoosiers earlier this season. That 63-10 road loss made Illinois the laughing stock of the Big 10.
They responded with a gutsy win over top-25 USC, and followed it up with a commanding victory over a much better Purdue team on the road.
Ohio State is yet to be challenged this year. Their 14-7 home win over the Texas Longhorns looks worse every week. Besides that, their biggest “test” came in the form of a sketchy 24-6 win over the unranked Washington Huskies. It was a one score game in the fourth quarter as Washington failed to get their offense going against this Buckeyes unit.
This Illini offense is not like these other teams they’ve played. Quarterback Luke Altmyer is top ten in the nation with more than 1,500 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and not a single interception.
They’re averaging 34 points a game and that number gets in the mid-40’s if you take out the dud against Indiana.
This is the last test on the schedule for Illinois and their path to the playoffs. It’s just another game for the Buckeyes.
I’m betting on the Illini to pull off the outright upset.
Auburn Over #10 Georgia (+150 FD)
There’s a reason the Georgia Bulldogs are only favored by 3.5 points over the unranked Auburn Tigers. And that reason is because they are going to lose.
The Dogs are not the team they used to be. First year starting quarterback Gunner Stockton is not a proven thrower of the football. He is a pure facilitator when it comes to this offense. He can not stand in the pocket and change the game. In five games this season he has only exceeded 200 yards passing twice.
He threw for 130 at home against the Crimson Tide. He does not have the arm talent to win a game like this in one of the toughest road environments in America.
Auburn doesn’t have the quarterback either, but when push comes to shove I’m betting on Jordan Hare Stadium. This is a two unit play for me.
Florida and Michigan Bonus Plays
I don’t feel as strongly about these two, but they are certainly system plays.
Firstly, the Florida Gators are one loss away from elimination. That means any team they play against is in trouble. They are taking on a Texas A&M team that very much resembles the Texas Longhorns team they beat last week.
The Aggies defense is ferocious, but their offense is no good. They are the better football team, no doubt. You’re betting on the back against the wall Florida Gators to carry over the swagger from their massive upset last week and take it on the road to beat another top five team. Gators are +225.
Michigan is a system play for an opposite reason. As the #15 ranked team in the nation, the Michigan Wolverines are 2.5 point underdogs against unranked USC. They are on the road, but it’s a 7:30 EST kickoff. I really don’t have a side here, I probably won’t bet it. But at +115 on the moneyline, I wanted to draw attention to the value here.
Personally, I think there is a reason the Trojans are favored.
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