The fresh baked College Football Playoff rankings will come out again on Tuesdayâ¦but they wonât mean much of anything, again.
With everything fluid for another month, what really matters is how many teams are still in contention to earn a spot in the 12-team fieldâ¦and how many teams no longer have any shot.
Two Dozen Team are Still in Contention
Letâs start on the east coast (even though two of the conference members are located on the west coast. Semantics.) The Atlantic Coast Conference champ is likely to be the only conference member to earn a spot in the field. That could change if Georgia Tech defeats in-state rival Georgia in their annual end of season battle but doesnât win the ACC title game. The Yellow Jackets would then finish 10-2 with a win over the Bulldogs and make a strong at-large case.
Otherwise, the title game contenders continue to be Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, SMU and Louisville. Duke and Miami donât really have a path. Most likely title game foes are Georgia Tech and Virginia.
The Big 12 could be in a similar situationâ¦unless BYU were to upset Texas Tech in a title game rematch. In that case, both would be in. The longshot is Cincinnati, who has a chance to replace BYU in the title game if they can upset the Cougars in two weeks, and of course the winner of the title game is automatically in.
The door is closed for every other Big 12 team.
The top-heavy Big 10 will probably only get three teams in â including top-ranked Ohio State and second-ranked Indiana, who are on a collision course for the conference championship game. Oregon will be the third team in from the Big Ten.
There are two other conference teams with an outside shot at an at-large. USC would need to knock off Iowa and Oregon to finish 10-2 and perhaps in the Top 11. Likewise, Michigan, who would need to continue to master the Buckeyes at the end of the year to finish 10-2 themselves. The Trojans bested the Wolverines earlier in the year, so if both things happened then USC would get the long-shot nod.
The SEC is likely to land five teams inâ¦and could get another if things fell right.
Texas A&M is in, as is Alabama and Ole Miss. Georgia and Texas will meet this weekend in an elimination game for the Longhorns. If the Bulldogs win that, theyâre in. But if Georgia were to lose to both Texas and Georgia Tech, it would be possible that they could be left out with three losses. That would open the door for an additional two-loss team like USC.
Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Missouri arenât going to make it.
Independent Notre Dame has an excellent chance and a relatively smooth path to get in.
Group of Six Picture Remains Very Cloudy
Then comes the Group of Six rep. This is where things are messy.
Teams with a chance include Navy, James Madison, South Florida, Tulane, North Texas and Memphis. This weekendâs USF at Navy game will help clear things up, as will Navy v Memphis in two weeks. The Mountain West champ isnât getting in this time around. If James Madison wins the Sun Belt they could sneak in and swipe the bid.
Things get a little clearer each week, but for now, these two dozen teams still have the big prize to play for. For everyone else, itâs wait âtill next year.
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