The NFL preseason delivers optimism to all 32 franchises each year, but not every team’s hopes survive the grind of a 17-game schedule. For Dan Quinn and the Washington Commanders, the range of potential outcomes might be the longest.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Commanders’ ceiling is a 12-5 record and their floor is 7-10. Those projections come from 20,000 season simulations, with extreme outliers removed to focus on realistic scenarios.
Whether Washington approaches those heights or stumbles, it may come down to one particular area where the team has struggled in recent seasons.
ESPN’s John Keim mentioned the variable that could decide which way they go.
Regular Season Schedule Will Test Both Sides
The Commanders don’t have an easy road in 2025. The high-powered offense will be challenged on a weekly basis, so much of the emphasis will be placed on the defense preventing late collapses.
“Washington’s offense will face more challenges playing 11 games against teams ranked in the top 13 scoring defenses last season,” Keimi wrote. “The Commanders need more from their defense, specifically in the fourth quarter. They ranked 18th in scoring and 13th in yards (though 30th in rushing yards per game), but in the fourth quarter they ranked 28th or worse in nine key categories. Their secondary should be much improved with the addition of rookie corner Trey Amos and a healthy Marshon Lattimore — but the latter needs to be durable, something he hasn’t been the past three years. A beefed-up defensive line, with multiple key additions including pass rusher Von Miller, needs to produce.”
While the front office went out this offseason and acquired big names for a more robust defense, it goes without saying that it won’t amount to much if they can’t shut down an offense in tight games.
Commanders’ Path To Repeat 12 Wins
Acquiring proven vets like Miller and Javon Kinlaw to a revamped Commanders defensive front, while maintaining rotation-heavy schemes with Frankie Luvu, it certainly creates more unpredictable looks against NFL offenses. That’s a lethal combination for opposing O-lines.
In the secondary, Amos and Lattimore are making waves at training camp. Amos, who’s impressed with his length and press coverage, should give Washington’s unit what it’s been missing next to Lattimore.
“To have a rookie playing at the level he is right now at camp and having coaches saying ‘Hey, this guy locked this guy up,’ that’s diamond hands,” former Washington wide receiver Santana Moss said on August 1, per Anna Newkirk of Commanders.com.
The Commanders have the offense to compete with anybody. Even if Terry McLaurin’s contract dispute proceeds into the season, Jayden Daniels, Deebo Samuel and Washington’s running game have the firepower to conquer their daunting regular-season slate.
As he did in his rookie campaign, Daniels is capable of spreading the football around efficiently. Samuel has been getting his explosiveness back in camp, and Brian Robinson Jr. spearheads a competitive running back room with a lot of gas left in the tank.
If all of the pieces click in the 2025-26 season, the Commanders could be back playing football again in January.
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