The New York Jets‘ offense failed to live up to its sky-high expectations a season ago. The bar is set at a far more realistic point this summer, although certain players are still asked to serve as star-level performers.
Wide receiver Garrett Wilson headlines the list. Fresh off a lucrative contract extension, the 24-year-old is officially a franchise player. With that comes a new set of projections for statistical production. From a fantasy football perspective, where does that leave Wilson?
Drafted too high, writes Alex Kay of Bleacher Report. In his list of fantasy football “busts” to avoid this season, Wilson was one of five players to make the cut.
Analyst Mentions ‘Motivation’ as Factor in Garrett Wilson’s Fantasy Value
Citing an average draft position (ADP) of the 14th wideout and 25th overall, Kay doesn’t believe Wilson is worth that slot. Part of his reasoning, however, stems from the former No. 10 NFL Draft selection now having more change in his pocket.
“With the motivation to earn generational wealth on a second contract now gone, the 24-year-old will need to find ways to improve upon a relatively disappointing finish to the 2024 season,” Kay wrote. “After opening last season with 97.4 fantasy points over the first six games—ranking No. 7 in the league during that period—Wilson’s production took a sharp downturn after the Jets acquired Davante Adams in Week 7 and on. He finished the last 11 contests with 154.5 points, just the 22nd-most at the position in that span.”
Had Kay not included the financial aspect of it, he’d be making a very fair point. While Wilson’s overall season numbers – 154 targets, 101 receptions, 1,104 yards and 7 touchdowns – look good, they did take a hit as the year went on.
Wilson’s last eight games, particularly, weren’t all that pretty. Extrapolated out to a full year, his production from that span would be good for 87 catches, 937 yards and 4 touchdowns. Improvement is necessary in order to justify such a high fantasy ADP, but Wilson deserves the benefit of the doubt. He also seems as locked in as ever.
Jets’ Duo of Wilson & Justin Fields Must Succeed in 2025
It’s no surprise that when Adams entered the fold, now-former Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers made him a priority. Consequently, the chemistry between Rodgers and Wilson never developed as many had hoped and the duo left some to be desired.
Now Wilson is reunited with his old Ohio State teammate in Justin Fields. Despite that, Kay isn’t sold. Kay believes a “clear regression in the team’s passing capabilities” with Fields instead of Rodgers may hurt Wilson’s value.
“While Fields displayed some improvements to his shaky arm by completing a personal-best 65.8 percent of throws in 2024, he still has a concerning 61.1 percent career completion percentage and hasn’t fared well during previous stints as a full-time starter,” Kay wrote. “While Fields’ dual-threat abilities could boost a Jets offense that struggled under Rodgers, his penchant for keeping the ball will result in a noticeable downtick in targets and scoring opportunities for Wilson.”
This is a valid concern. With that said, it isn’t like the Jets have game-breakers elsewhere. Whether it be a tight end or a non-Wilson wideout, no one will sniff his volume. Targets, even if a run-heavy offense is instituted, shouldn’t be an issue.
For instance, the Detroit Lions ran the ball more than all but two teams a season ago. Wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown still logged 141 targets and had 115 catches. New York’s offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, comes over from that very team. St. Brown and Wilson are different players, but the example is there.
It’s this writer’s take that now isn’t the time to worry about Wilson’s production.
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