The New York Jets enter Week 16 of the regular season as one of five NFL teams with a realistic shot at the highly coveted No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. According to ESPNâs Football Power Index, only the Las Vegas Raiders (37.6%), Cleveland Browns (20.3%), Tennessee Titans (18.9%), New York Giants (16.1%) and Jets (6.8%) have at least a 1% chance of landing the top selection.
Even though the Jetsâ chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick are slim, the possibility still exists depending on how the final three weeks of the regular season unfold, as crazier things have happened in the NFL.
Realistically, the Jetsâ 6.8 percent odds of securing the first overall pick would only increase if the team were to lose its final three games against the New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.
“The Jets aren’t favored at the Saints, against the Patriots and at the Bills to close out the season. The Saints are playing well enough that they probably will be able to take care of the Jets, so the big risk comes in Week 18 if the Bills have already lost the AFC East and don’t have much to play for,” wrote Seth Walder of ESPN.
Gang Green has a much stronger chance of securing a top-five selection, with ESPNâs Football Power Index giving the Jets a 77.8% probability of picking inside the top five.
GettyThe Jets will play the Saints on Sunday.
Jets Have Assets to Trade Up to No. 1 Pick
Even if the Jets were to lose the rest of their games this season, that would not automatically secure them the first overall pick. With their odds sitting at just 6.8 percent, the most realistic path for New York to move up to No. 1 would be via a trade, a scenario that is not far-fetched given the draft capital the team possesses.
The Jets currently hold the 5th and 18th overall picks in the first round of the upcoming draft, along with two second-round selections. Looking ahead, New York is also projected to own three first-round picks in the 2027 NFL Draft.
There is definitely a scenario where the Jets could use some of the draft capital they currently hold to trade up if they are particularly high on a specific prospect.
GettyGeneral Manager Darren Mougey.
Quarterback Targets for the 2026 Draft
If the Jets decide to trade up in the draft, it would likely be for a quarterback, such as Indianaâs Fernando Mendoza, who is projected as the potential first overall pick in many mock drafts.
“The Jets are a complete blank slate at QB moving forward. They don’t have any major cap issues connected with Fields or Aaron Rodgers anymore. They need a star at QB and would be unwise to pass up a chance to draft one with the top pick,” wrote ESPN’s Dan Graziano.
If New York doesnât trade up to the first pick, keep an eye on another quarterback prospect: Oregonâs Dante Moore.
Moore is projected to be a first-round selection in this yearâs draft and has the potential to be a franchise quarterback. Standing 6â3â, he has the size, arm strength, and proven accuracy to make an immediate impact at the next level.
Oregon QB Dante Moore.
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