The Toronto Maple Leafs are on a collision course with RFA Nick Robertson. The two sides will be heading to an arbitration hearing on Sunday, insider Elliotte Friedman reported. Of the dozen or so RFAs who filed for arbitration this summer, all except Robertson have agreed to terms with their teams.
That situation has set up a hearing in which a neutral third party will listen to arguments on both sides regarding what the value of Robertson’s next contract should be.
According to Friedman, the Maple Leafs are offering $1.2 million AAV while Robertson’s camp believes the contract value should be $2.25 million AAV. Robertson earned $875K this past season.
The arbitrator will listen to both sides and determine what the value of Robertson’s next contract should be. If the Maple Leafs accept the ruling, the club will ink the 23-year-old to a one-year deal.
Otherwise, the Maple Leafs can disagree with the ruling, immediately making Robertson a UFA. That situation seems unlikely, however, as the club extended a Qualifying Offer (QO) to Robertson. That move signaled the club wants to keep him on the roster.
The roughly $1 million gap could be split among both camps. So, the arbitrator could rule that Robertson should get somewhere around $1.75 to $2 million.
Whatever the final ruling is, there’s a risk that the outcome could fracture the Robertson’s relationships with the Maple Leafs even further. Moreover, an unfavorable ruling in Toronto’s eyes could lead to increased trade speculation surrounding the disgruntled forward.
Maple Leafs Forward Worth $2.7 Million per Analytics
Benchrates, an analytics platform, estimates that Nick Robertson’s performance last season was equivalent to a contract valued at $2.7 million AAV. That’s an interesting figure considering it’s well above what Robertson’s camp argues he’s worth.
That number is based on Robertson’s 15 goals in 69 games with the Maple Leafs this past season. The former second-round pick from the 2019 NHL Draft continued to see limited playing time despite promises from Craig Berube to get a fair shot.
Robertson saw his playing time dwindle down the stretch, while falling out of the lineup in the postseason. Nevertheless, Robertson still had a productive season, beating his career-high in goals.
Judging solely from his offensive contribution, Robertson is underpaid. Unfortunately, his defensive side, lack of faceoff skills, and penalty kill time bring his overall value down.
As a result, it could be inferred that Robertson’s value boils down to his offensive contributions. If he could elevate the rest of his game, Robertson could be worth even more
Robertson’s Time in Toronto Could Be Drawing to a Close
Last summer, Robertson and the Maple Leafs headed into a stalemate over the young forward’s trade request. That request stalled as the dismissal of Sheldon Keefe and the arrival of Craig Berube offered a fresh start for both sides.
One year later, Robertson is essentially in the same spot. Only this time, he’ll head into August with a new contract in tow. That situation could make it easier for the Maple Leafs to trade Robertson, as potential trade partners will have more certainty as to the cost of acquiring and paying Robertson.
If that’s the case, the arbitration hearing could merely be a formality. Once over, the Maple Leafs could look to move on from the beleaguered winger.
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