Justin Herbert really needs to win a playoff game this year. For as great as the Chargers quarterback has been throughout his first five regular seasons, and he’s been historically great in terms of production and avoiding interceptions, the knock on him continues to be his lack of success in the playoffs. Granted, he’s only been there twice, but each trip has been historically bad in its own way.
After ESPN surveyed league executives, coaches and scouts, Justin Herbert finished as the No. 7 quarterback in the league. “The objective was to identify the best players for 2025,” ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote this morning. “This was not a five-year projection or a career achievement award.”
Justin Herbert Still Not in Elite Tier, Despite Elite Production
Last year, Justin Herbert broke Peyton Manning’s record for the most passing yards through a quarterback’s first five seasons (21,093). Manning was the first to throw for 20,000 or more yards in his first five seasons. His record stood for over 20 years.
He also became just the third quarterback in NFL history to record 3,000 or more yards and 20 or more passing touchdowns in each of his first five seasons. The other two quarterbacks to reach that milestone: Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson. That’s pretty good company.
Despite his elite production, Herbert’s “immense talent” “hasn’t vaulted him into the first tier of quarterbacks,” Fowler wrote. But, many of the evaluators involved agree that Herbert is one of the best options for any franchise.
“If starting the league from scratch and drafting quarterbacks, Herbert is still getting picked very high,” Fowler wrote. One AFC executive even called Justin Herbert “taken for granted.”
“He’s always been a top-5-8 QB — accurate to all levels, athletic, sound decision-maker,” the AFC executive said. “It’s almost like he’s underrated now, in my opinion.”
Herbert showed last season that he can maintain a high level of efficiency while avoiding big mistakes. During his first season under offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Herbert “was asked to sacrifice yardage” as part of their run-heavy attack. Despite playing four more games than 2023, Justin Herbert only threw 48 more passes. That paid dividends in the turnover column.
“Sticking to the ball-control plan, Herbert’s three interceptions on 504 attempts marked the lowest interception rate (0.6%) by any qualified quarterback since Tom Brady in 2016,” Fowler wrote.
His late-game heroics are nothing to shrug at, either. Of the quarterbacks in the 2020 draft class, Herbert’s 16 game-winning drives rank first by a decent margin. Jalen Hurts is second with 12, with Tua Tagovailoa (10) and Joe Burrow (9) not far behind. Oddly enough, Burrow is No. 3 on the list, Herbert is No. 7 and Hurts is No. 9.
I’m sure if you asked Herbert, though, he would gladly trade places with Hurts – or even Burrow – in terms of playoff success. Hurts is 6-3 in the playoffs and fresh off of a Super Bowl run, which included a Super Bowl MVP. Burrow is 5-2 in the playoffs and led the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance as CPOY in 2021.
“Justin can get there,” one veteran NFC personnel evaluator said. “He has the ability, so it should come in time.”
Sports Illustrated Analyst Points out That Chargers ‘Do Him No Favors’
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