Caleb Williams may come to regret the day he spoke to Seth Wickersham for the writer’s upcoming book.
On August 12, Jon Greenberg of The Athletic highlighted new reporting from Wickersham’s forthcoming book “American Kings,” which includes specific details about current Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton’s pre‑draft evaluation of Williams.
Payton liked Williams’ arm, but—per Wickersham—questioned the QB’s processing speed and how he’d handle failure, a contrast to how highly he graded Bo Nix. Whether you buy Payton’s rubric or not, it’s a window into how at least one Super Bowl-winning coach viewed Chicago’s franchise QB before 2024.
Greenberg’s write‑up on Wickersham’s book highlights a real scouting divide among coaches when it came to Williams. Here’s a look at what else Payton thought about Williams before the 2024 NFL Draft.
Sean Payton ‘Wasn’t Sold’ Caleb Williams Would Succeed in the NFL
GettySean Payton had some telling thoughts about Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams.
Here’s more from Greenberg’s piece on how Payton evaluated Williams:
In one section of the book, Wickersham is sitting down with Broncos coach Sean Payton before the 2024 draft. … The QB guru wasn’t sold that Williams would excel in the NFL. For one, Payton has a formula weighted on negative plays in college that informs his evaluations, and Williams’ number was higher than Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels. While Payton loves Williams’ arm at USC, he is ‘worried a little about his processing speed.’ Payton sees ‘too many easy completions left on the field, open receivers that Williams fails to spot quickly. But his primary concerns with Williams are existential.’ Payton wonders how Williams will deal with failure at the NFL level.
Whew. Should this concern the Bears? Some parts, maybe.
Williams had an up-and-down rookie year in which issues with timing and pocket management came to the fore. Williams took an NFL‑high 68 sacks last year, and while protection and scheme share some of the blame, sometimes Caleb held onto the ball too long. That’s exactly the “processing” bucket Payton’s formula tries to measure.
Payton’s comments also weren’t made in a vacuum; they were part of Denver’s calculus to take Nix at No. 12 in 2024. Wickersham reports Payton ran his formula on all the top passers—Williams included—then chose the player he believed turned negative plays into non‑events most consistently.
Looking at the numbers, here’s how Williams and Nix both fared in 2024:
- Williams: 351‑of‑562 (62.5%), 3,541 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs, 87.8 rating; 68 sacks and 489 rushing yards.
- Nix: 376‑of‑567 (66.3%), 3,775 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs, 93.3 rating; 24 sacks and 430 rushing yards.
Context starts up front. Denver’s offensive line was one of the league’s best at sustaining blocks, ranking near the top of ESPN’s pass block win rate in 2024. Chicago, meanwhile, remade the interior of its O-line this offseason largely because of the team’s recent struggles.
More on the Implications From Seth Wickersham’s Upcoming Book
Wickersham’s book also revived reporting that Williams and his family weighed extreme measures to avoid Chicago before the 2024 draft.
The second-year quarterback has since emphasized his commitment to the Bears and had made it his goal to start changing the franchise’s QB history. That matters because how a young quarterback processes adversity is as important as how he processes coverages, a theme at the heart of Payton’s critique.
Change should be near, though. Now in a new offense under Ben Johnson, Williams will be the benefactor of more plays and a structure that will get help the ball out on time and on rhythm.
If Williams can overcome his shaky rookie campaign and play well in 2025, Payton’s concerns become history.
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