He’s 36 and has dealt with declining production and playing time in recent years, but the Washington Commanders can still expect big things from newly signed decorated veteran edge-rusher Von Miller, thanks to a surprising statistic.
The stat comes from TruMedia and research compiled by Jared Dubin of CBS Sports. He used numbers to delve into the “recent history of these types of designated veteran pass rushers — guys who were 35 years old or older at the start of the season, and who could reasonably be considered edge defenders.”
To his surprise, Dubin “discovered they’ve actually fared a bit better than I thought they would have.” That’s good news for a Commanders team fresh off handing a one-year contract to 30-something who’s logged six sacks in two seasons.
Miller has a Hall of Fame pedigree, but age and declining production appear to be working against him. Fortunately, Dubin cites many examples that should serve as inspiration for the ex-Buffalo Bills situational pass-rusher, while a couple of underlying metrics also endorse the Commanders’ latest piece of business.
History of 30-Something Pass-Rushers Offers Good News for Commanders
Dubin looked at a group featuring some of the most prolific pass-rushers in NFL history. Edge defenders who combined production with longevity, like Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers and Cameron Wake.
What Dubin found was that “on average, this group of players played 424.8 snaps and racked up 6.2 tackles for loss, 4.6 sacks, 10.4 hits and 20.6 hurries, with the latter three totals combining for an average of 31.2 pressures.”
When considering possible caveats for the data, Dubin pointed to “the concept of survivorship bias. The only edge rushers who even get to play this deep into their 30s are the ones who are so good that they’re not forced into retirement before they reach that age. So, you’d expect them to be pretty productive, because otherwise they wouldn’t even be able to get onto the field. And indeed, a number of them barely got into the field in their final seasons, with five of the 22 playing fewer than 250 snaps, whether due to injury or age-related decline.”
Retaining enough pass-rush juice to still earn regular reps in the winter of a career is rare. Maintaining consistency is a sign of good professional habits and long-term durability, but as Dubin detailed, Miller “has been inconsistent in this late stage of his career. He had six sacks and 32 pressures in 13 games last season, but went without a sack and had only 13 pressures in 2023.”
The end product has been lacking, but Miller, who lifted Super Bowl trophies with the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams at his peak, still possesses some of the old magic.
His last two sacks for the Bills, highlighted here by The Washington Post’s Nicki Jhabvala, showcased the kind of speed-to-power and rip-and-dip moves the Commanders need up front.
If Commanders head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. still require further signs of encouragement, they should consider some more hidden stats.
Von Miller’s Still Winning
The metrics prove Miller is still bringing the heat entering his 14th season in the pros. At least in terms of winning enough pass-rush matchups to generate regular pressure and disrupt quarterbacks.
As The Team 980’s Ben Standig pointed out, after citing statistics from Pro Football Focus, Miller is no longer “an elite, every down pass rusher,” but he did rank “10th in pass-rush Win % (shown below). Lots of stars on the list. Also, T-8 in the ‘PRP’ metric that considers sacks, hits, hurries and pass rush attempts.”
Sacks and splash plays are always welcome, but most defensive coordinators around the NFL would argue applying a steady stream of pressure on the pocket is more important. It derails offenses in more consistent and subtle ways.
More consistent disruption is what the Commanders were lacking up front. Miller is still playing like a menace and, even in a situational role, immediately upgrades an edge room populated by more physical, but less dynamic types like Clelin Ferrell, Jalyn Holmes, Deatrich Wise Jr. and Jacob Martin.
Select use of Miller can still work after he “played the 2nd fewest snaps of his career last year but had 23 hurries and 6 sacks in barely 209 pass rush snaps,” per KYTX CBS 19’s Damien Bartonek.
He’s already performing the third-down specialist role to a high level, and the history of 30-something pass-rushers is also on Miller’s side. Both things bode well for the Commanders getting the improvement their defense needs.
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post Surprise Stat Raises Expectations for Commanders DE Von Miller appeared first on Heavy Sports.