While the jury remains out on the what Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy will ultimately become in the NFL, it’s fair to say the organization overestimated how quickly he could lead it to consistent winning, which means it’s also fair to say the franchise made mistakes letting Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones walk.
However, Minnesota will have a chance to rectify those wrongs come the offseason, as Jones will be a free agent following a one-year deal with the Indianapolis Colts. ESPN currently ranks him the No. 3 free agent in the 2026 class.
“Jones has a chance to become the biggest earner in the free-agency class,” Jeremy Fowler wrote Wednesday. “The Colts appear all-in on keeping Jones long term, and they have comps for former top-10 picks who thrived when quarterbacking a new team: Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, who each earned three-year deals worth around $100 million.”
That is a significant amount of money, and not a tally Minnesota would be keen on paying, as the team’s entire strategy with McCarthy was to pay the QB position less so it could spread wealth around the roster. The Vikings did that, but the results haven’t been there.
McCarthy still has, and deserves, at least the rest of the year to play the string out. However, after injury problems cost him 22 of his first 24 regular-season games, and considering he has looked overwhelmed more often than not when healthy, McCarthy could be fighting for his starting job come March.
If the Vikings must spend $100 million to Jones to get back into contention, like they were with Darnold in 2024, that isn’t the biggest price to pay. Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa each make more than $50 million annually for franchises that won’t be playing in February anytime soon.
Not Foregone Conclusion That Daniel Jones Automatically Re-Signs With Colts in March
GettyIndianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones.
The Colts are likely to make an offer to Jones that the Vikings would have trouble matching after inking him to a deal worth $14 million in 2025. Spotrac currently projects Jones’ market value at just under $46 million annually, or approximately $184 million over a new four-year contract, though that is likely more than the market will actually bear for a player the New York Giants cut during the middle of last season.
All of that said, what Jones will want isn’t simple to predict.
He spent the second half of last year in the Vikings QB room with head coach Kevin O’Connell. And as many weapons as the Colts have in the pass game, Minnesota matches or exceeds them.
Analysts Bill Simmons and Sheil Kapadia of The Ringer suggested on the November 5 edition of “The Bill Simmons Podcast” that the Colts may overplayed their hand dealing for Gardner. Despite the 8-2 record, both Simmons and Kapadia named three or four teams they’d favor over Indianapolis in the AFC playoffs this year, asserting further that this season’s success could merely prove a flash in the pan for the Colts.
If Minnesota came to Jones with a Mayfield-level offer, it is hard to believe that the dual-threat QB wouldn’t at least strongly consider it along with whatever else is out there for him next spring.
Vikings Highly Likely to Add QB to Compete With JJ McCarthy for Starting Job Next Offseason if Play Doesn’t Improve
GettyMinnesota Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy.
And making a move for Jones wouldn’t mean that the Vikings have to push McCarthy out the door. He will still have two years remaining on his rookie contract come next offseason, with a fifth-year team option on the deal that Minnesota will not have to decide on for another full year.
This conversation perhaps won’t be relevant if McCarthy makes a leap over the last eight games of the campaign. However, if he doesn’t, what the 22-year-old QB has put on tape thus far is likely to force the Vikings’ hand in acquiring some competition for McCarthy next spring, at the very least.
“The scheme that helped push Sam Darnold into the top 10 in QB rating and top five in passing yards has not had the same impact on McCarthy, who has looked overwhelmed and erratic at times. While Darnold dominated downfield, McCarthy is 23-for-46 on passes over 10 yards downfield with 5 TDs and 5 INTs,” Matthew Coller of Purple Insider wrote Wednesday. “Per PFF, 22.0% of McCarthy’s pressures have been caused by him, which is the fifth highest rate in the NFL. He has the second highest pressure-to-sack ratio in the league, only behind rookie Cam Ward.”
Jones may not be the Vikings’ guy and $100 million may not be the number, but if McCarthy keeps on playing the way he has, fans should expect a serious move to add a serious name under center heading into 2026.
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