The New York Yankees don’t need a miracle on Tuesday night. They need Carlos Rodón to be the best version of himself. Down 0–2 after a pair of lopsided losses in Toronto, the Bombers return to the Bronx with their season hanging by a thread and their All-Star lefty on the mound. The assignment is simple and unforgiving: win today or start packing.
Toronto’s opening-weekend barrage set the tone. The Blue Jays took eight of 13 in the regular season, pummeled the Yankees in the first two ALDS games, and launched eight homers while setting a Major League record with 23 runs across the first two contests of a postseason series. Sunday’s 13–7 final only looked respectable on the screen. It was 11–0 through five with Max Fried already out and 22-year-old rookie Trey Yesavage flirting with a no-hit narrative. Yankee Stadium will bring a different volume and a different pressure. Rodón knows it, and he has built himself for exactly this night.
The Case For Rodón In Game 3
This version of Rodón blends power and polish. According to advanced metrics, his fastball still sets the table (94.1 mph average in 2025), but the repertoire goes deeper now. He has leaned into a six-pitch mix—four-seamer, slider, changeup, sinker, curveball, and the occasional cutter—and the shape/usage evolution shows up in the results. Statcast has opponents hitting just .224 against the four-seamer this year and a microscopic .133 against the slider, with the changeup (.197) giving righties something else to think about. That balance helps explain the step forward from 2024 to 2025. This season he had a 3.09 ERA, 3.32 xERA profile, improved first-pitch strike rate, and a better handle on hard contact (hard-hit rate down to 38.9%).
Just as important, the mental game has caught up to the stuff. After a turbulent first season in New York, Rodón unplugged, reshaped routines, and borrowed the “one log at a time” rhythm from the organization’s model starters. In October, the best pitchers don’t just miss bats; they set a pace that settles everyone else. The Yankees need that cadence after a weekend that spun too fast.
He’ll also drag a few matchup advantages into this start. Toronto’s right-handed power core has to deal with a lefty who now changes eye levels and speeds more often. The slider’s whiff clip (40.3% chase/whiff component this year) has punished over-eager swings. The sinker gives him a quick ground-ball lever when he’s ahead; and the changeup has become a true third weapon rather than a show pitch. When Rodón gets to two strikes, he has three different doors to close an at-bat.
What The Yankees Need Behind Him
Survive the first trip through. That’s the immediate goal. If Rodón buys the offense 12 to 15 outs without damage, the game tightens, and the stadium does the rest. From there, the Yankees need clean defense and zero free bases—no extra outs, no leadoff walks. Rodón’s 2025 walk rate (7.6%) and first-strike approach make that a realistic expectation. However, the infield must finish plays, and the outfield must cut off singles before they become doubles.
The lineup can help by forcing Toronto’s starter to labor early. Even a single grinding inning that pushes traffic and pitch count can flip the leverage back toward New York’s side. If Rodón hands a lead to the bullpen, the path to a flight back to Toronto appears. And should the Yankees push this to a Game 4, the narrative changes again: rookie Cam Schlittler waits with fresh legs and a recent eight-inning, 12-strikeout memory that energized the clubhouse.
History won’t win Game 3, but it can inform the stakes. The Yankees have climbed out of darker corners—the 2017 ALDS in Cleveland, the famous Jeter flip in 2001—because one game swung the series’ mood. Tuesday is that swing point. New York doesn’t need three wins at once. It needs one commanding night from Carlos Rodón. If he delivers the pace and the punch he’s shown all year, the Yankees’ season gets at least one more heartbeat.
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