There have been many days in Sir Keir Starmer’s troubled term as Prime Minister that could be described as ‘crucial’ and ‘make-or-break’ – today is one of them.
The climax will come this evening, when MPs vote on whether the PM should be subjected to an investigation by the Privileges Committee.
He is facing accusations from Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and others that he misled Parliament when speaking about his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US.
That argument is made up of two halves: one covering Starmer’s claim that ‘due process’ was followed, and another covering his insistence that ‘no pressure whatsoever’ was applied on the Foreign Office over the case.
Badenoch has suggested the evidence against the PM is undeniable. Government ministers have called the move a political stunt ahead of the May 7 elections.
The reality, as is often the case, appears to be quite messy, and the outcome may hinge on the definition of vague terms.
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Here’s what you can expect to happen today.
What is the opposition arguing?
There are two parts to the case against Sir Keir Starmer, and both are rather technical.
The first says Starmer misled the House of Commons when he claimed ‘due process’ was followed in the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US.
Badenoch points to advice from then-Cabinet Secretary Simon Case before Mandelson was appointed, which said the announcement should only be made after vetting had taken place.
Instead, the vetting took place after Starmer made the announcement. The Tory leader argues that means due process was not followed.
But the PM has produced later advice from Chris Wormald, Case’s successor, in which he says he has reviewed evidence which leads him to conclude ‘appropriate processes were followed’.
At the very least, this suggests it’s not cut-and-dry whether announcements should or shouldn’t come after vetting – it appears to vary from case to case.
The second part revolves around a claim from Starmer at last week’s Prime Minister’s Questions, that there was ‘no pressure whatsoever’ applied to the Foreign Office to push the process through.
On the face of it, this looks much easier to refute: the former top Foreign Office civil servant Sir Olly Robbins told the Foreign Affairs Committee last week that he faced ‘constant pressure’ to complete the process.
However, the government says the implication here is that pressure was applied to get Mandelson approval regardless of his vetting results – which ministers say is categorically untrue.
On the BBC’s Today programme, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said: ‘Is there pressure in government to make sure things are done in a timely way so we get the government’s business through? Yes, that’s absolutely what you’d expect.’
Government figures will have been cheered up by the evidence of Sir Phillip Barton, Robbins’ predecessor in the top Foreign Office job, in front of the Foreign Affairs Committee this morning.
He said explicitly: ‘During my tenure, I was not aware of any pressure on the substance of the Mandelson DV [developed vetting] case.’
What will happen to Starmer if today’s vote passes?
It’ll mean big trouble for Starmer.
The Privileges Committee may or may not say he misled Parliament on one or both of those points – but either way, the investigation would ensure the Mandelson affair gets drawn out for a very long time.
This would be painful for the PM, who has already said the appointment was a mistake and apologised for it.
It would, of course, be a disaster of far bigger proportions if he’s found to have misled Parliament. That would almost guarantee his resignation.
Perhaps the irony would hurt almost as much: it was Starmer who pushed for the Privileges Committee investigation that ended Boris Johnson’s political career when it found he had misled Parliament.
Is today’s vote likely to pass?
No. Labour still has a huge majority in the House of Commons, and even if the party’s backbenchers aren’t too keen on Starmer, they’ll be reluctant to hand the Tories such a big win the week before the elections.
To make doubly sure, government figures have been ringing around Labour MPs to ensure they’ll stay loyal in the vote.
However, you may look at the fact they need to do that at all as a troubling sign.
The anger at Starmer over the Mandelson appointment isn’t going away, and could yet boil over once the results from the May 7 elections emerge.
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