Southern California bosses have pulled back on hiring, but this cooling is less dramatic than what’s seen nationwide.
My trusty spreadsheet examined employment in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Ventura, and Imperial counties using July job counts from the state’s Employment Development Department and the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. These stats were adjusted for seasonal hiring swings.
In July, Southern California businesses had 9.9 million people on the payroll, up 45,900 from a year ago. For some perspective, over the past decade, the region has averaged 79,400 new jobs a year.
So job creation is running 42% slower than what we’ve gotten used to. No wonder folks are feeling a little uneasy about the economy.
But measure that slowdown against what’s happening across the country.
Nationwide, employers had 159 million people working in July, which is 316,000 more than last year. That’s a far cry from the 1.4 million jobs a year we’ve seen since 2016. We’re talking about a 78% cut.
Or look at the gaps this way: Southern California jobs grew by 0.5% over the past year. The whole country? Just 0.2%.
Why?
It’s zero surprise that numerous employers are hesitant to add to their payrolls when they’re juggling so many unknowns.
There’s an Iran war that won’t end, heightening anxieties, plus fluctuating trade policies for those who deal with foreign goods or markets. Inflation and interest rates remain stubbornly elevated. And if you sell to consumers, those customers are fairly skittish, too.
Locally, employment continues to blossom in the medical field and private education. Plus, it’s been a good summer for tourism, with the World Cup soccer games in Los Angeles providing an added draw for out-of-town visitors.
Northern lights
Curiously, bosses elsewhere in California are less concerned about increased staffing, thanks to the Bay Area companies’ race for artificial intelligence supremacy.
The state’s 51 other counties had 8.2 million jobs in July, up 66,600 from last year. That’s a 0.8% bump and 19% slower than the usual pace of 82,200 new jobs a year since 2016.
Add up the Golden State and ponder California’s clout in the national job market: The state represented 11% of all American employment in July, but it was 36% of all U.S. job creation in the past year.
Locally speaking
Contemplate the region’s six job markets. Four added workers over the past year, while two saw declines in employment.
Here’s how they fared, ranked by July’s job swings:
– Los Angeles County: 4.6 million workers, up 20,700 in a year – equal to the 10-year norm.
– San Diego County: 1.6 million jobs, up 11,600 in a year, and 21% below the 14,700-a-year norm.
– Inland Empire: 1.7 million jobs, up 8,200 in a year, and 74% below the 31,800-a-year norm.
– Orange County: 1.7 million jobs, up 7,100 in a year, and 33% below the 10,600-a-year norm.
– Imperial County: 61,000 jobs, down 200 in a year. Pace since 2016? 900 added yearly.
– Ventura County: 317,200 jobs, off 1,500 in a year. Pace since 2016? 1,700 added yearly.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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