Even with GTA 6 out this year, a new report predicts that console sales for 2026 will be lower than last year and will drop further in 2027.
The upcoming launch of GTA 6 is expected to give console sales a big shot in the arm – particularly the PlayStation 5 – considering the game’s status as the most anticipated release of all time.
Sony and Microsoft also have exclusives of their own to push on their respective hardware, such as Marvel’s Wolverine and Gears Of War: E-Day.
And yet a new report claims that console sales overall will decline this year by a massive 19.5% and only continue to drop in 2027.
This is according to analytics firm S&P Global Market Intelligence, which forecasts that console sales for Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo will fall to 33.9 million units by the end of 2026.
While that still sounds like a lot, this is significantly less than the 42.1 million units sold during 2025, which was boosted by the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2.
Expert, exclusive gaming analysis
Sign up to the GameCentral newsletter for a unique take on the week in gaming, alongside the latest reviews and more. Delivered to your inbox every Saturday morning.
S&P states that it expects console sales will dip to 27.1 million units in 2027, before starting to improve in 2028 and climbing back up to 37.4 million units by 2030.
‘A critical assumption underlying our forecast’s recovery period later in the decade is that the component crisis eases sufficiently by 2028 to allow Sony and Microsoft to bring next generation hardware to market at price points in the $600 to $800 range,’ S&P Global Market Intelligence analyst Neil Barbour tells GamesIndustry.biz.
It predicts that Switch 2 sales will hit 17.1 million in 2026, with similar performance to the second year of the Wii and original Switch. The PlayStation 5 is predicted to decline further, to 13.2 million in 2026 – down from 17.1 million last year. The forecast acknowledges the launch of GTA 6 but does not foresee it having a major effect on console sales.
There’s certainly no suggestion it will help the Xbox Series X/S, which only shipped 3.2 million console last year and is forecast to drop to 2.5 million this year and then ‘a rapid wind-down toward zero thereafter.’
Don’t miss Gaming news! Add us as a Preferred Source
As a loyal GameCentral reader, we want to make sure you never miss our articles when searching for gaming stories. We have all the latest video games news, reviews, previews, and interviews, with a vibrant community of highly engaged readers.
Click the button below and tick Metro.co.uk to ensure you see stories from us first in Google Search.
As for why console sales are expected to drop, S&P’s reasons are what you’d expect: they’re too expensive, the ongoing memory shortage is going to limit stock, and, according to them, there’s a lack of major ‘tentpole releases’.
There’s nothing anyone can do about the rising prices, which are driven by the fact that the components are being used in AI centres. But S&P’s prediction that the memory crisis will ease in a couple of years may be too optimistic.
Some electronics companies are suggesting the crisis will last well into 2030, if not longer, and that prices will never return to their previous levels.
And yet the expectation is still that Sony and Microsoft will launch their next consoles – the PlayStation 6 and Project Helix – within the next couple of years.
And yet there’s currently very little enthusiasm for a next generation of hardware amongst hardcore gamers. Aside from Sony’s controversial plans to ditch physical games entirely and Xbox’s recent layoffs, both consoles are going to be ridiculously expensive, with little expectation of any major graphical improvements.
S&P’s suggested price range of $600 to $800 for new hardware would be roughly £450 to £600 in the UK, but the PS5 Pro already costs considerably more than that and there has been chatter of Sony and Microsoft charging over £1,000 for their next consoles – with Sony already stating it won’t be selling the PlayStation 6 at a ‘significant loss.’
Nintendo may fare better since the Switch 2 will remain more affordable, even after its own price hike, although it’s future line-up remains somewhat nebulous. They’ve still shown virtually nothing of this year’s remake of Zelda: Ocarina Of Time, while Pokémon Winds and Waves isn’t expected until late 2027.
Email gamecentral@metro.co.uk, leave a comment below, follow us on Twitter.
To submit Inbox letters and Reader’s Features more easily, without the need to send an email, just use our Submit Stuff page here.
For more stories like this, check our Gaming page.