For all his wizardry at the end of games last year, the Bears‘ Caleb Williams was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL at the end of the first half.
In the final four minutes of regulation, Williams threw for six touchdowns and ran for one more, posting a 98.9 passer rating. The Bears led the NFL in touchdowns.
In the final four minutes of the first half, though, he threw for three touchdowns and had a 77.9 passer rating. Only six teams scored fewer touchdowns.
That was the razor’s edge that Williams walked last year, and also the challenge he faces starting a season that will define his Bears career. If he can make the first three quarters look like the fourth this year, he won’t have to play the hero. If he doesn’t, the Bears can’t possibly count on more end-game magic.
The end-of-half disparity has bothered coach Ben Johnson since the middle of last season. He talked about the second-quarter struggles the NFL’s annual meeting in March — “We tended to get the first, first down, but we didn’t end up moving the ball very much after that,” he said — and even made the topic the subject of a pregame meeting during training camp.
For Williams, the marching orders are clear.
“Just hit the easy ones when they’re there,” he said. “Be in rhythm … Be confident in my guys. Be confident within the play. Deliver a good ball. Deliver a catchable ball. And then from there, when things happen, I put on a cape and go do my thing.”
Williams needs to focus on doing boring better.
He was atrocious on short throws last season. He completed just 65% of his passes of 10 yards or fewer last year, the worst mark in the NFL for anyone not named Joe Flacco. He didn’t rank much better on intermediate passes, either; his 45% completion rate on passes of 11-20 yards was fifth-worst.
Williams threw a higher percentage of all his passes off-target last year than any quarterback but the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy.
Playing for a coach who has demanded a 70% completion rate, those numbers are a flapping red flag.
Williams’ passer rating in those situations tell a more alarming tale: his 88.7 on short passes and 78.2 on intermediate throws each ranked as eighth-worst. That means that Williams didn’t put his receivers in position to gain as many yards after the catch as coaches wanted. To that end, Williams has been focusing on ball placement since the minute last season ended. It’s not enough to just increase his completion percentage — he needs to hit receivers in stride and give them a chance to get upfield.
“Completion, completion, completion,” Williams said. “Then it grows to, ‘How can I place the ball better for these guys in these situations?’”
Williams doesn’t have the same concerns throwing deep. He completed 42% of passes of 20 yards or more last year, which ranked eighth in the NFL. His passer rating of 114.4 was sixth. That requires less finesse, though.
There were times last year when Williams pushed back when his coaches preached about his ball location.
“He was like, ‘Well, the receiver should catch it,’” quarterbacks coach J.T. Barrett said.
As a former quarterback, Barrett understood the sentiment. But the former Saints backup told Williams about how Hall of Famer Drew Brees used to apologize to receivers for throwing a ball too high, even when he completed a pass.
Last year, Barrett would correct Williams after passes, telling him to get his throws higher or farther outside.
“Now he’s saying it before I say it,” he said.
The Bears hope that leads to four-quarter consistency. Williams posted a 79.2 passer rating in the second quarter last year, almost 12 points worse than any other quarter. He threw fewer touchdowns in the second quarter than any other frame, too.
In his first 10 throws in each game, he had a 94.1 passer rating. In the second 10, 76.4. Too many times last year, Williams looked like a pitcher trying to locate his fastball — and needing a mound visit to calm down. That’s not afforded him in the NFL, so Williams has tried to focus on the mental side of his game, even in practice.
“Being able to encourage myself, being able to get out of those funks where it may take a whole drive for me to you know come to the sideline, get you know get out of it,” he said. “Try to get out of it one or two plays — maybe after a bad play or I messed up on something or we jumped offsides, and, y’know, I get frustrated. But I think I’ve done a better job of that, and I’ve been more comfortable with that.”
Barrett has been stressing it, too.
“The really great ones move on,” Barrett said.
The split showed up in the playoffs, when the Bears outscored their opponents 32-13 in the fourth quarter and were outscored 34-16 in all other quarters.
Johnson emphasized the end-game disparity to his players in a team meeting earlier this month.
“It’s a huge point of emphasis for us,” he said.