Blanche Says Violent Crime “PLUMMETED” Under Trump — Scholars Question Who Gets Credit

Attorney General Todd Blanche posted Monday that new Justice Department estimates show violent crime “PLUMMETED in 2025 compared to 2024.”

“This is what happens when you have an administration who prioritizes the safety and security of Americans and our communities,” he wrote.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey put the drop in violent victimization, excluding simple assault, at about 25%. The survey also found declines of 27% in robbery and 19% in property crime. The Justice Department is framing the data as representing the largest crime declines since 1973.

Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward said in a statement: “This report is proof that President Trump’s ‘Make America Safe Again’ agenda is working.” FBI Director Kash Patel credited the bureau’s summer surge, which he said was “crushing violent crime across all 56 field offices.” He added: “2025 was historic. 2026 numbers were even higher.”

Republicans in Congress were quick to claim it. Rep. Troy Nehls wrote: “Violent crime victimization PLUMMETED 25% in 2025. The largest decline since 1973. Law and order works.”

Crime researchers have also documented a broad decline, though its causes remain disputed. Thomas Abt of the University of Maryland wrote that the survey is “another data point joining many others indicating a massive crime drop over the past few years.”

Last week, Abt shared a line from analyst Jeff Asher: “The United States in 2026 will almost certainly have the lowest murder rate ever recorded, the lowest property crime rate ever recorded, and the lowest violent crime rate since the late 1960s.”

The Council on Criminal Justice asked about four dozen crime scholars to rate nearly 50 possible explanations for the homicide decline. The council released the results Oct. 7. Only the end of pandemic-era disruptions was cited as a cause by a majority of respondents.

Fewer than 25% of the scholars rated either immigration enforcement or National Guard deployments as a major or limited contributor. Reason’s Jacob Sullum wrote that the decline began in 2023, before Trump’s current term.

A survey of crime experts deflates Trump’s attempt to take credit for recent declines in homicide. None of them thought the federal policies highlighted by Trump have played a major role in that trend. https://t.co/pH5kGdFl2O

— Jacob Sullum (@jacobsullum) October 7, 2026

[NOTE: A CBS News report says the White House unveiled the FBI’s annual crime figures at a campaign event on Long Island, with Blanche and Patel attending, in what it called a break from the tradition of separating nonpartisan law enforcement from the campaign trail.]