By this point, Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson has probably memorized the NHL draft-lottery odds for the 31st-place team.
This marks the third consecutive year the Hawks have finished in that spot, and therefore also marks the third consecutive year they’ve entered the lottery — Tuesday at 6 p.m. CT — with the exact same odds.
The Hawks have a 13.5% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick, a 14.1% chance of getting No. 2, a 30.7% chance of getting No. 3 and a 41.7% chance of getting No. 4, which is the farthest they could fall.
Considering the Hawks picked No. 1 in 2023, No. 2 in 2024 and No. 3 in 2025, there may be a pattern emerging, but the Hawks obviously hope that trend doesn’t hold — and there’s no statistical legitimacy to it, of course.
The last-place Canucks have the highest odds (25.5%) of winning the top selection, while the Rangers (11.5%), Flames (9.5%) and Maple Leafs (8.5%) round out the rest of the top five heading in. The Leafs’ stakes are particularly high, because if they fall out of the top five (a 56.2% probability), they’ll give their pick to the Bruins.
Last year’s lottery was full of surprises, with the 10th-to-last-place Islanders cashing in on 3.5% odds to land the top pick and the 14th-last Mammoth cashing in on 3.1% odds to get the second pick, so anything can happen.
For the Hawks, what’s at stake is the opportunity to select one of consensus top-two forwards Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg, either of whom would likely develop into a stellar addition to their top-six.
If they slip outside the top two and neither McKenna nor Stenberg falls, they will have to choose between one of several acclaimed defensemen — Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, Carson Carels and Alberts Smits — or fast-rising forward Caleb Malhotra.
Every prospect option will be analyzed extensively over the next seven weeks leading up to the June 26-27 draft, particularly at the draft combine June 6.
Panthers’ pick slides
The Panthers’ unexpectedly disastrous, injury-ridden season had one major silver lining for them: It activated the top-10 protection attached to the first-round pick they traded — along with Spencer Knight — to the Hawks for Seth Jones, allowing them to keep it and forcing the Hawks to receive their 2027 first-round pick instead.
Panthers GM Bill Zito must be thrilled he didn’t instead attach top-five protection like the Leafs. The top-10 protection clause wasn’t publicly discovered until February, creating consternation in the fan base, but both front offices were fully aware of it all along.
The Panthers enter Tuesday with a 12.4% chance of jumping up into the top three, whereas they can’t fall any lower than 10th. They could conceivably trade the pick again, taking advantage of its greater-than-expected value.
The Hawks, meanwhile, are slated to make only one first-round pick — barring any further trades — for the first time since 2021, but they do own three second-round picks.
They also already own three 2027 first-round picks: their own, the Panthers’ and the Oilers’, whose decision to trade such substantial assets for pending free agents Connor Murphy and Jason Dickinson backfired in their first-round playoff loss.
Davidson could use those three first-rounders as trade chips of his own a year from now. And that Panthers pick is technically now unprotected, even though the Panthers seem more likely than not to surge back into the playoff field next season.
Note: Top Hawks prospect Roman Kantserov’s playoff run in Russia ended Sunday, and his contract with his Russian club expires May 31. Negotiations with the Hawks will likely begin soon.