Who knew that California consumer confidence would rise for four consecutive months after a war broke out?
My trusty spreadsheet peeked at the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for August. Created from public polling, this yardstick of optimism tracks shoppers’ psyche in eight states, including California, and the nation. The mood of shoppers is critical to the broader economy, as consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all business activity.
California’s confidence index has climbed each month since April to a level that’s 10% higher than July 2025’s optimism. This upbeat vibe can also be seen as the highest point since December, or 5% above the average from the last twenty years.
So, what’s driving this boost? Let’s look inside the index.
California’s present situation measurement tells us that current conditions are viewed very favorably. This index is up 15% over the past year to its highest since December 2024 and runs 26% above its long-run average.
Looking ahead, Californians’ financial hopes are up too, with the expectations index rising 6% over the year. But there’s still some worry since this number is 12% below the long-term average.
It’s a bit of a head-scratcher to see so much optimism, given all the financial and political uncertainty swirling around California, the country and the world.
But an oddly stable job market, a strong stock market and home prices that refuse to budge seem to help most Californians feel better about their wallets. And yes, that’s most but not everyone.
Anxious Americans
The national numbers tell a different story for shoppers across the country.
U.S. consumer confidence has dropped 9% over the past year, hitting its lowest point since January, right before the war with Iran started. This optimism yardstick sits 3% below the average since 2007.
Now Americans felt a bit better about August’s economic conditions, with the present situation index reaching a four-month high – though 8% lower than a year ago. Even so, the present situation is 14% above the long-term average. //just making sure present situation is supposed to be “above” the long-term average since all the other long-term stats seem to be below//
When it comes to the future, however, Americans are gloomy. The expectations index fell 9% over the year to its second-lowest level since April 2025 and 17% below average.
This is an interesting backdrop to the upcoming midterm elections in November.
Stately stats
Out of the seven other states tracked by the Conference Board, only two saw confidence rise over the past year.
New York optimism jumped 19% to its strongest confidence since April and is 32% above average. Michigan’s up 16% in a year to 29% above average.
The decliners, ranked by the confidence index’s decline:
– Florida: Off 4% in a year to its highest since April, but 8% above average.
– Pennsylvania: Off 5% in a year and 2% below average.
– Illinois: Off 7% in a year but 23% above average.
– Texas: Off 10% in a year to its lowest since January and 10% below average.
– Ohio: Off 15% in a year and 7% below average.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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